Market Information Friday 8 March 2019

Market Information Friday 8 March 2019

The ECB announced yesterday that it will not raise interest rates this year. In addition, the ECB announced several measures. From September onwards, a new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III) will be launched, with a maturity of two years. These operations are launched in order to preserve favourable bank lending conditions. The ECB has lowered its expectations for growth and inflation. The new expectations are 1.1% growth (previously 1.7%) and 1.2% inflation (previously 1.6%). The ECB indicates a slowdown in growth but not a recession. The ECB expects that in the second half of 2019 the growth will increase.

The Japanese economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter of 2018. Economists expected 1.7% growth but the gross domestic product increased by 1.9% on a year-on-year basis. The higher growth is partly caused by more and stronger business investments. However, economists are not very optimistic for 2019, because of the conflict between America and China and the more difficult market for technology companies.

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that the number of bankruptcies (347) in the wholesale trade sector in 2018, is the lowest number since this is being measured. In the fourth quarter of 2018 turnover of wholesale trade was 4.1% higher than in the last quarter of 2017. The growth is mainly caused by trade in oil and coal, the turnover in this branch increased with 15.4%. In addition, trade in building materials and electronic equipment had a positive effect on the growth in turnover in the wholesale trade sector.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 0.58% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 7 March 2019

Market Information Thursday 7 March 2019

The US Department of Commerce reports a trade deficit of USD 621 billion in 2018. The deficit increased with 12.5% compared to the preceding year. The trade deficit can be attributed to increased domestic demand due to tax reductions and decreased exports due to the strong position of the dollar and foreign import tariffs.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its global economic growth expectations for 2019 to 3.3%. In November the expected growth for 2019 was 3.5% but because of reduced growth in China, continuous political uncertainties and weaker growth in Europe, the OECD re-adjusted its expectations. The global growth for 2020 is also lowered from 3.7% to 3.4%.

Statistics Netherlands reports that the prices of consumer goods and products in the Netherlands grew with 2.6% in February compared to the same period in the year before. In January, prices increased with 2.2%. The price increase in February is caused by price developments of car fuels, airplane tickets and clothing.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 0.65% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 6 March 2019

Market Information Wednesday 6 March 2019

Research institute ISM announced that the activity in the US services sector increased in February 2019, with a growth rate of 59.7 compared to 56.7 in January 2019. Economists expected a level of 57.4. A position above 50 indicates growth, and below that indicates contraction.

The American president Donald Trump threatens to terminate certain free trade agreements with India and Turkey. According to Trump the agreements with India are not reasonable, because India is still creating trade barriers for American exports. According to the president, Turkey’s economy is developed in a way that the support program is no longer necessary.

The European statistical office Eurostat reported that retail sales in the European Union increased by 1.1% in January. A month earlier there was still a 1.3% decrease. On an annual basis retail sales increased by 2.2%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 5 March 2019

Market Information Tuesday 5 March 2019

Yesterday, Eurostat announced that eurozone producer prices increased 0.4% in January 2019 compared to December 2018. Economists expected an increase of 0.3%. For the European Union, an increase of 0.3% was reported.

On Tuesday, China lowered its economic growth forecast for 2019. Economic growth is expected to be between 6% and 6.5%. Previously, the growth forecast was 6.5%. It is the first time Peking uses a range for its growth forecast. In addition, tax cuts amounting to € 263 billion were announced, along with investments worth several billions in infrastructure and smaller businesses.

Figures publishes by the United States Department of Commerce show that construction spending in the United States has increased by 0.6% in December 2018 compared to November 2018. Economists expected an increase of 0.2%. In November, construction spending rose by 0.8%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.69% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 4 March 2019

Market Information Monday 4 March 2019

The United States and China are close to an agreement that will lift most American trade restrictions on products from China. Agreement would have been reached on the export of US products to China and protection of intellectual property. Parties are still negotiating, on whether import tariffs should be removed immediately, or whether a transitional period will be introduced during which China would have to demonstrate that it complies with the agreements.

Credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded the credit rating of Greece from B3 to B1, with a stable outlook. According to Moody’s, a stronger economy, combined with tight creditor supervision, reduces the chances of reversing reforms.

Thursday, the ECB will hold its policy meeting. Markets expect that the ECB will not change interest rates. ECB President Mario Draghi will present the ECB’s expectations for economic growth and inflation in the Eurozone. On Friday, the jobs report from the US for February will be published. Furthermore, figures will be published on the European services sector, European retail sales and German factory orders.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.71% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Eurozone
• Producer Price Index (PPI) Eurozone
• Unemployment United States
• Interest rates Eurozone

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.