Market Information Friday 26 June 2020

Market Information Friday 26 June 2020

The economy in the United States grew by 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. This follows from the third estimate published by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday. The contraction of the economy is in line with the second estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the US economy grew by 2.1 percent compared to the third quarter of 2019.

New figures published by the US Department of Labor on Thursday show that 1.48 million Americans filed for social assistance benefits during the week ending June 20, 2020. That is a small decrease compared to a week earlier, when the number of unemployed increased by 1.54 million. Economists had expected 1.35 million new unemployed.

New figures from Statistics France show that the consumer confidence index in France increased to 97 in June 2020, from 93 in May 2020. In April 2020, the consumer confidence index stood at 95. The increase comes as a surprise, as economists expected a consumer confidence index of 92 for June 2020.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.28% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.17% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 25 June 2020

Market Information Thursday 25 June 2020

The United States is considering imposing additional import tariffs of a further USD 3.1 billion on goods from European countries in retribution for ‘illegal’ European state aid to aircraft manufacturer Airbus. This is revealed in a notice from the United States Trade Representative (USTR), an institution acting on behalf of the US president. It concerns products from France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. Last year, the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled in the Americans’ favour in the dispute with the EU and authorised the imposition of tariffs of USD 7.5 billion on European exports.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that the global economic damage caused by the corona crisis will total more than USD 12,000 billion in 2020 and 2021. This is what IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath writes in a report on the consequences of what she calls the ‘Great Lockdown’. According to Gopinath, the virus outbreak and global lockdown measures against the virus caused the deepest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, with an expected global contraction of 4.9% this year. Next year, the global economy is predicted to recover by 5.4%.

The Dutch economy is contracting even more than the IMF foresaw two months ago, but is recovering more robustly thereafter. According to the organization, the Dutch gross domestic product will decrease by 7.7% this year. In April, the IMF expected a contraction of 7.5%. Next year however, the Dutch economy will grow again by 5%. For 2021, the IMF had previously forecasted a growth of 3%.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.27% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to -0.16% compared to previous business day.In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 24 June 2020

Market Information Wednesday 24 June 2020

A second estimate published by Statistics Netherlands has shown that the Dutch economy shrank by 1.5% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter of 2020. In previous estimates, Statistics Netherlands reported a contraction of 1.7% on a quarterly basis. Compared to the first estimate, domestic investments in construction, among others, were revised upwards. Household consumption was also higher than initially assumed. The trade balance was adjusted downwards.

Market researcher Markit has reported that activity in the eurozone fell again in June 2020. The purchasing managers index (PMI) for industry came to 46.9. A reading below 50 indicates shrinkage. The PMI for industry did improve sharply in June compared to the previous month; in May it was still at 39.4. The PMI for the services sector amounted to 45.8 in June, up from 32.6 in May.

According to Angela Merkel’s chief economic advisors, the German economy will show signs of recovery from the summer of 2020. Growth expectations for 2021 are also positive. The German government’s advisory council expects a contraction of 6.5% in 2020. For 2021, economic growth is forecast at 4.9%.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to -0.26% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to -0.14% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 23 June 2020

Market Information Tuesday 23 June 2020

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) released figures on Tuesday showing that consumers spent 17.4 % less in April 2020 than in April 2019. This is the largest contraction in domestic household consumption ever recorded by CBS. Consumers mainly spent less on services, where spending was 24.6 % lower than a year earlier. Circumstances for consumer spending in June are less favourable than they were in April, according to the CBS Household Consumption Radar. Consumer confidence has however recovered slightly in June with a reading of -27 compared to -31 in May 2020.

According to figures released by the European Commission on Tuesday, consumer confidence in the eurozone showed a level of -14.7 in June from -18.8 in May 2020. Consumer confidence across the EU improved from -19.5 in May 2020 to -15.6 this month. Both indicators remained below their long-term averages of -11.1 for the eurozone and -10.5 for the EU.

Figures from IHS Markit and Jibun Bank show that the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) in Japan declined to a level of 37.8 in June 2020 from 38.4 in May 2020. This is the lowest level since March 2009. The Services PMI index increased from 26.5 in May 2020 to 42.3 in June 2020.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.16% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 22 June 2020

Market Information Monday 22 June 2020

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), warned European leaders on Friday that there may be risks to the financial markets if aid packages for economic recovery will not come. The current calm stock market sentiment could change if no agreement is reached, according to Lagarde. The ECB aims to link a recovery fund of EUR 750 billion for the worst-affected Member States to the Multiannual Financial Framework. Moreover, this framework will be increased to EUR 1100 billion, from the current framework (the years 2014 – 2020) of approximately EUR 1000 billion. This makes a total fund of € 1870 billion.

UK retail sales recovered sharply in May, with the first loosening of the corona virus lockdown measures. According to figures from the UK’s national statistics agency, sales increased 12 percent compared to last month. In April, when the severe lockdown was still in place, retail sales declined by more than 18 percent from March.

The British budget deficit is widening as a result of the corona crisis, in particular due to London’s urges to resolve the crisis. For the first time since 1963, public debt exceeds 100 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Since the beginning of the year, the British state has borrowed £ 103.7 billion, according to the British statistics bureau.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.15% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.