Market Information Friday 4 October 2019

Market Information Friday 4 October 2019

Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman announced that the oil production in Saudi-Arabia has completely recovered of the production loss of 5.7 million barrels per day, since the drone attacks on two large facilities of a Saudi national oil company in September. The 5.7 million barrels per day is approximately 5% of all the oil production in the world. The oil price has decreased again with the recovery of the Saudi oil production.

European statistics bureau Eurostat stated that the producer prices in the Eurozone have decreased in August with 0.5% in comparison to July. Economists expected a decrease of 0.3%. In July prices increased with 0.1%.

According to research institute ISM, economic activity in the US non-manufacturing sector showed the lowest growth level in 3 years in September. The Non-Manufacturing Index was 52.6 in comparison to 56.4 in August. Economists expected a value of 55.3.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.38% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to -0.17% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 3 October 2019

Market Information Thursday 3 October 2019

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has determined that the US is permitted to impose tariffs on 7.5 billion US Dollar of EU exports. The tariffs serve as a retribution for the illegal European subsidies to aircraft constructor Airbus. These are the highest tariffs ever approved by the WTO. The tariffs may be imposed on European products such as alcohol, groceries, luxury goods and airplane parts.

British prime minister Boris Johnson has addressed a letter to President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker concerning a compromise proposal with new agreements on Brexit. The proposal for the backstop, the guarantee of a none physical border between Ireland and North-Ireland, will be cancelled. However, Johnson prefers a zone for (North) Ireland in which the same rules apply to all goods.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced during an Energy Forum in Moscow that Russia will remain a responsible OPEC partner. Oil ministers from OPEC countries Iran and Saudi-Arabia attended the event. Russia is not a member of OPEC, but has signed an agreement with OPEC on decreasing the oil production in order to support oil prices.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to -0.14% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 2 October 2019

Market Information Wednesday 2 October 2019

The Ministry of Raw Materials of Ecuador has announced that the country will leave OPEC as of January 1, 2020. The South American country is a relatively small member of the oil cartel and wants to be able to produce more oil to strengthen its financial position. As a member of OPEC, the country is now bound by production restrictions that aim to raise oil prices. The country is a member of OPEC from 2007.

Research firm ISM has reported that industrial activity in the United States has fallen in September 2019 compared to a month earlier. The PMI index fell from 49.1 in August to 47.8 in September. Economists expected on average an increase to 50.0. The decrease is partly due to the continuing trade tensions with China and the cooling global economy. The underwhelming figures may cause the Fed decide to further lower interest rates in the US.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has indicated that it expects global trade growth to reach 1.2% in 2019. This is considerably lower than the 2.6% that was still expected in April 2019. According to WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo, the worsening prospect of world trade is caused, among other things, by the increasing uncertainty among entrepreneurs as a result of the US-China trade rate, the approaching Brexit and the slowing global economic growth.

Today, the European Central Bank has started the transition to a new short-term reference rate. The new interest rate, which has been given the name €STR, reflects the overnight borrowing costs of banks within the European Monetary Union. This reference rate will replace the EONIA rate in the future. The first fixing of the rate, which was published by the ECB on October 2nd, is -0.549%.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.15% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 1 October 2019

Market Information Tuesday 1 October 2019

Figures from Eurostat show that the unemployment rate in the eurozone has decreased from 7.5% in July to 7.4% in August, the lowest level since May 2008. In the eurozone, almost 12.2 million people are unemployed. For the European Union, unemployment was 6.2%, or about 15.4 million people. The highest level of unemployment was in Greece.

Seasonally adjusted figures from Destatis show that unemployment in Germany remained stable from August to September. The unemployment rate was 5% of the working population, in line with the expectation of economists. The amount of people unemployed decreased by 10,000 to 2.27 million.

Destatis also announced that German inflation has decreased in September to 1.2% on a year-on-year basis. Economists expected an inflation rate of 1.3%. On a monthly basis, inflation remained stable. Using the European harmonised method inflation was 0.9%, compared to 1% in the previous month.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.38% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to -0.15% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 30 September 2019

Market Information Monday 30 September 2019

Market researchers Markit and Caixin have published figures showing that activity in the Chinese industry grew more strongly in September 2019 than in the previous month. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose from 50.4 in August to 51.4 this month. Economists had expected on average a decrease to 50.2. Earlier, the Chinese government published figures, which showed that the PMI for the industry had fallen further to 49.8. The government figures mainly focus on state-owned companies, while Markit and Caixin mainly survey smaller private companies.

Final figures from the University of Michigan show that consumer confidence in the US increased in September 2019 compared to the previous month. The index that measures confidence rose from 89.8, the lowest level in 3 years, to 93.2. A figure of 92.0 was reported in an earlier estimate.

According to Michael Saunders, a policy maker of the Bank of England (BoE), the BoE will have to lower interest rates, even if the UK is able to prevent a no-deal Brexit. His statements are remarkable, since Saunders is known as a fierce opponent of monetary intervention. According to Saunders, uncertainties surrounding Brexit are putting pressure on economic growth, even if a deal will be concluded in the short term. He also points to the declining global economic growth. As a result of comments made last Friday, the British pound fell sharply against the euro.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.38% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.16% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.