Market Information Monday 31 August 2020

Market Information Monday 31 August 2020

Consumer confidence in the US economy increased further in August. The University of Michigan announced this based on definitive figures. The index recorded a level of 74.1 against a provisional figure of 72.8. Consumer spending in the United States also increased in July. The US Department of Commerce announced a 1.9 percent monthly growth of consumer spending.

The French economy declined at a record rate of 13.8 percent in the second quarter compared to the previous period due to the corona crisis. This was announced by final figures from the French national statistical office. It is the strongest decline since the measurements began more than 70 years ago.

German consumers have become more gloomy about the economy, as announced by Market researcher GfK. The index that reflects consumer confidence in Europe’s largest economy notes a level of minus 1.8 compared to a previous measurement of minus 0.2.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.14% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 27 August 2020

Market Information Thursday 27 August 2020

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will ease its inflation policy. In addition, the Fed will be more tolerant of higher inflation according to chairman Jerome Powell at the annual symposium of the central bank. Powell said that the Fed will aim for an inflation rate that fluctuates on average around 2 percent. This implies room for an inflation rate that may exceed that level for certain periods. The Fed previously set an inflation target of exactly 2 percent. In recent years, however, the percentage has been well below that level.

Based on a second estimate the American government reports that the economy of the United States contracted less in the second quarter than previous figures had indicated. The downturn is estimated at 31.7 % against an earlier estimated decline of 31.9 %. On average, economists expected a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) of 32.5 %. The decline is still the strongest decline in GDP since the measurements started.

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) has reported that producer confidence increased again in August 2020. The index that measures confidence increased to minus 5.4 in August from minus 8.7 in July. The greatest improvement came from the order book and stocks of finished products. In addition, Statistics Netherlands announced that producer prices were on average 4.9 percent lower in July 2020 than a year earlier.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to -0.14% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 27 August 2020

Market Information Thursday 27 August 2020

The Netherlands Authority for Financial Markets (AFM) is conducting further investigation into the handling of unusual transactions by investment institutions. Earlier this year, the AFM stated that investment institutions are failing in this area. Six investment institutions and companies will be examined in this study. It will be examined whether, for example, whether transaction profiles are defined for customers and whether unusual transactions are notified. These checks are mandatory because of the Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Prevention Act (Wwft).

Employers organizations VNO-NCW and MKB-Nederland have informed the Dutch cabinet to be cautious with the reviewing of the Corona measures, these stimulus package should not be reduced substantially as many companies are expected to suffer if support measures are abolished or reduced substantially. The cabinet is consulting intensively on how to proceed, according to Wouter Koolmees, Minister of Social Affairs. The new aid package, which will start in October after the current schemes expire, will cover a period of 9 months.

Hurricane Laura will be one of the worst hurricanes ever that will reach the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane will make landfall on Thursday morning, local time. The hurricane is expected to cause damages of USD 25 billion. According to Bloomberg news agency, the storm will reach speeds of 145 miles per hour, which is considered “extremely dangerous”. This means that the hurricane has been scaled up to category 4. Reuters news agency reports that approximately 620,000 people were evacuated on Wednesday.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to -0.16% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 26 August 2020

Market Information Wednesday 26 August 2020

Research institute Ifo has announced that confidence in the economy among German business leaders is continuing to improve. The index reached a level of 92.6 in August 2020 against a level of 90.5 in July. Economists had anticipated an increase to a level of 92.1. In April, the indicator dropped to the lowest level ever measured due to the corona crisis. In the months following, recovery started but the index is still below the value of one hundred representing neutral confidence.

Consumer confidence in the US economy on the other hand unexpectedly decreased in August compared to July according to market researcher Conference Board. The index that reflects confidence reached a level of 84.8 against a revised level of 91.7 in July. Economists had expected a slight increase to 93. Confidence has fallen to the lowest level in six years.

World trade showed a sound recovery from the corona crisis in June. According to the report published by the Central Planning Bureau (CPB) which speaks of a strong catch-up growth. Growth in world trade was 7.6 % in June compared to May. Industrial production is also showing further recovery with growth of 4.8 % compared to May. As a result, global production is 8 % lower than at the end of previous year.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to -0.18% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 25 August 2020

Market Information Tuesday 25 August 2020

Research by credit rating agency Moody’s shows that the European Union’s EUR 750 billion crisis emergency package is particularly beneficial for lenders in the tech and telecom sector. Furthermore, sustainable initiatives in energy and transport as part of the support are rated as credit-positive. The European Recovery Plan will encourage countries to make long-term, sustainable financing available to help tackle climate change as well.

The German economy contracted slightly less in the second quarter than previously reported. According to the German Federal Statistics Office, Europe’s largest economy contracted by 9.7% compared to the previous quarter. A decline of 10.1% was reported earlier. This is still the strongest contraction for Germany since measurements began in 1970.

Global steel production in July was still slightly lower than a year earlier. The World Steel Association reported that in total, 152.7 million tons of steel were produced in July, 2.5% less than the same month last year.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.22% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 24 August 2020

Market Information Monday 24 August 2020

The economic recovery in the eurozone is hesitant. The activities of the purchasing managers are increasing, but at a lower rate in August than in June and July. The Markit purchasing managers index for the eurozone declined to 51.6 in August, from 54.9 in July. The numbers confirm that the eurozone has not recovered yet.

The Chinese economy is expected to grow this year despite the impact of the corona crisis. Prime Minister Li Keqiang confirmed this on Chinese state radio Sunday. In the second quarter, the Chinese economy grew by 3.2 percent compared to a year earlier. In the first quarter of this year, a record decline of 6.8 percent was reported.

According to the European Commission, consumer confidence in the eurozone improved slightly in August compared to a month earlier. The index used to measure confidence in Brussels increased to minus 14.7 from minus 15 a month earlier. The indicator is back at the level of June.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.22% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 21 August 2020

Market Information Friday 21 August 2020

German producer prices decreased by 1.7 percent in July 2020 compared to July 2019. This follows from figures published by the Destatis, the German statistical office, on Thursday. On a monthly basis, producer prices increased by 0.2 percent in July 2020 compared to June 2020. In June 2020, the annual decrease in producer prices was 1.8 percent, while prices remained stable on a monthly basis.

The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index for the US economy increased by 1.4 percent in July 2020 to 104.4. In June 2020, the index also rose by 3.0 percent. The LEI index is a business cycle indicator that shows the development of the economy in the coming six months.

The composite index for activity in the Japanese economy remained unchanged from July 2020 at 44.9 in August 2020. This follows from figures from Markit Economics and Jibun Bank. The purchasing managers index fell from 45.4 in July 2020 to 45.0 in August, while the industry index increased from 43.9 to 44.7. An index position greater than 50 indicates growth, while an index position below 50 indicates contraction.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to -0.22% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 20 August 2020

Market Information Thursday 20 August 2020

As a result of China’s controversial national security law for Hong Kong on June 30, 2020, the United States (US) has temporarily cancelled its bilateral agreements with Hong Kong. It concerns the agreements on the extradition treaty and tax agreements on shipping. As per mid-July 2020, the US already ended Hong Kong’s special trade status. Previously, Australia, Germany and the United Kingdom have temporarily halted their extradition treaty with Hong Kong due to security law. The law makes it possible to act against state-subversive activities and therefore seems to be mainly aimed at the pro-democracy movement.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) announced that the global trade in goods is slowly picking up after the historic contraction in the second quarter of 2020. In the second quarter, global trade decreased by an expected 18.5%. WTO expects that the contraction of world trade will be 13.0% over the whole of 2020.

Eurozone inflation increased to 0.4% year-on-year in July, compared to an increase of 0.3% in June. This final figure was published yesterday by the European statistics agency Eurostat.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.20% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 19 August 2020

Market Information Wednesday 19 August 2020

In the second quarter of 2020, turnover of the Dutch industry was 16.6 percent lower than a year earlier. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) based on new figures. Especially in April and May, industrial producers generated less turnover compared to a year earlier. Revenues of petroleum producers declined most. Selling prices were 7.1 percent lower in the second quarter than in the second quarter of 2019.

In July, the number of home-construction starts in the US increased by almost 23 percent, the largest increase since October 2016. The recovery was stronger than expected as economists had anticipated an increase of 5 percent. The S&P 500 index closed the trading day 0.2 percent higher at 3389.78 points and surpassing the old record of February 2020. The new record is mainly caused by technology companies, which share prices have performed well in recent months, and the support measures that central bankers worldwide have deployed to mitigate the economic effects of the corona pandemic.

Japan’s exports decreased again in July, according to data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Exports dropped on an annual basis in July 2020 by 19.2 percent compared to -26.2 percent in June 2020. Economists had anticipated a decline of 21 percent. Japanese imports fell by 22.3 percent in July.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.20% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 18 August 2020

Market Information Tuesday 18 August 2020

The impact of the corona crisis on the Dutch economy is slightly less than previously estimated. According to the forecast of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), the economy will grow again from the third quarter onwards, which implies that the contraction for 2020 as a whole will probably be limited to 5.1% compared to the 6.4% forecasted in June. Next year, it is expected to grow by 3.2%. Unemployment is likely to increase to 6.5%. CPB has also worked out a scenario in which a second lockdown proves necessary. In that case, the CPB expects a contraction of 6.2% this year and a contraction of 3.2% in 2021.

The Japanese economy shrank by 7.8% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2020. This is reflected in the preliminary GDP data published by the Japanese government. According to analysts, this is the biggest contraction for Japan since the Second World War. It marks the third consecutive quarter of contraction for Japan. Japan’s economic downturn is slightly larger than expected, but still less severe than in many other countries. This is because the Asian country has not taken too restrictive measures against the coronavirus.

The Nasdaq stock exchange set a new record in New York on Monday. The broad-based S&P 500 remained just off a new record, while the Dow-Jones index showed a loss. The Nasdaq increased by 1% to 11,129.73, the S&P 500 increased by 0.3% to 3381.99 points and the Dow-Jones index decreased by 0.3% to 27,844.91 points.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to -0.19% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 17 August 2020

Market Information Monday 17 August 2020

The Dutch economy was hit hard by the corona crisis in the second quarter of 2020. Based on initial calculations by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) announced on Friday, gross domestic product declined by 8.5 % compared to the first quarter. The largest decline measured, according to the statistics office. More than half of the decline can be attributed to the sharp decrease in household consumption. Furthermore, investments and imports and exports also declined sharply.

Eurostat reports that in the second quarter of 2020 employment in the eurozone has undergone the largest decline measured since the European statistics office started in 1995. The number of jobs in the euro area decreased by 2.8 % due to the corona crisis compared to the first quarter of 2020. Employment decreased by 0.2 % in the first quarter. For the European Union as a whole, employment fell by 2.6 percent compared to a 0.1 % decrease in the first quarter.

Industrial production in the United States increased with 3 % in July from the previous month, according to the Federal Reserve. The increase continued the upward trend of a month earlier when production increased by 5.7 % in June, according to adjusted figures. The US manufacturing utilization rate was 70.6 % in July, up from a revised 68.5 % in June.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.16% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 14 August 2020

Market Information Friday 14 August 2020

According to figures from the US Department of Labor, US import prices rose by 0.7 percent in July 2020 compared to June 2020. In June 2020, import prices also increased by 1.4 percent compared to May 2020. American export prices increased by 0.8 percent in July 2020 compared to June 2020.

Figures published by the US Department of Labor on Thursday show that 963,000 Americans filed for social assistance benefits during the week ending August 8, 2020. That is a decrease compared to a week earlier, when the number of unemployed increased by 1.2 million. Economists had expected 1.1 million new applications.

Chinese industrial production increased by 4.8 percent in July 2020 compared to July 2019. This is the same increase as in June 2020, when production also increased by 4.8 percent compared to June 2019. Economists had anticipated an increase of 5.0 percent. On a monthly basis, the increase in July 2020 was 1.0 percent compared to June 2020.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to -0.15% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 13 August 2020

Market Information Thursday 13 August 2020

Eurozone manufacturing production continued to increase in June 2020, after the first increase in May. The increase is mainly caused by the further relaxation of the lockdown measures. Based on figures from the European statistics agency Eurostat, production increased by 9.1% in June, compared to May. Production was still significantly lower compared to June 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%.

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that 204 companies, excluding one-man companies, went bankrupt in July, slightly lower (27) than in June 2020. Of all industries, the trade sector encountered the largest number of bankruptcies. CBS states that the corona crisis has not yet resulted in a bankruptcy peak, which is partly due to the fact that many companies operate during the crisis period with financial support of the Dutch government.

Tomorrow, Statistics Netherlands will also publish the first growth figures of the Dutch economy in the second quarter. Rabobank analysts expect a contraction of about 9.0%, ING Bank estimates a contraction of 10.0% to 11.0%.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to -0.19% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 12 August 2020

Market Information Wednesday 12 August 2020

German investors’ prospective confidence increased sharply in August, according to the ZEW index published yesterday. Economists expected a reading of 58, but the index increased to a level of 71.5 from 59.3 in July. Investor confidence for the current situation is still negative with a reading of -81.3 compared to -80.9 a month earlier. According to the research institute expectations for the Euro-area economy as a whole also improved in August with the index increasing to 64 from 59.6 in July 2020.

Figures from the US Department of Labor show that producer prices in the United States increased by 0.6 percent in July 2020 compared to June 2020. In June producer prices fell by 0.2 percent compared to May 2020. Economists had anticipated an increase of 0.3 percent. On an annual basis, producer prices increased by 0.3 percent in July 2020 compared to July 2019.

According to the Office for National Statistics in the UK, employment fell by 220,000 in the second quarter, the strongest decrease since 2009. The unemployment rate for the second quarter is 3.9 percent. Unemployment in the UK is expected to rise rapidly as of the end of October as several government job protection programs will end.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to -0.20% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 11 August 2020

Market Information Tuesday 11 August 2020

The economic recovery in the euro area was weaker in July than in previous months. This is reported by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on the basis of the index of leading indicators for the month of July. The euro area indicator for July was 97.3, compared to 96.7 a month earlier and 93.7 in May. The long-term average is 100. At its low point in April, it stood at 91.6. The OECD stresses that there is still uncertainty about the impact of possible measures to reduce virus risks. According to the organisation, the data should therefore be interpreted “with care”.

The Turkish lira is decreasing significantly in the midst of financial turmoil in Turkey. Last week the central bank of the country promised new measures to support the value of the currency, but chose to leave the interest rate untouched. The situation already caused the lira to depreciate considerably last week. On Monday, the lira fell another 1.7% against the dollar.

The number of applications for unemployment benefits in Great Britain is rising again, after a limited decline in June. According to the British statistics office, more than 94,000 applications for unemployment benefits were received last month. The total number of applications now amounts to about 2.7 million. According to the statistical office, the British unemployment rate in June was 3.8%, from 4.1% in May. In the second quarter as a whole, unemployment totalled 3.9%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to -0.25% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 10 August 2020

Market Information Monday 10 August 2020

The US Department of Labor announced on Friday that employment in the United States has shown another recovery in the past month. Unemployment fell to a level of 10.2 percent from 11.1 percent in June 2020. Excluding the agricultural sector, 1.8 million jobs were added, implicating that the recovery pace has slowed considerably compared to a month earlier when 4.8 million jobs were added.

German industrial production increased by 8.9 percent in June. In May production increased with 7.4 percent. Compared to a year earlier, production is still at a considerably lower level with a decrease of 11.7 percent.

The National Bureau of Statistics in China has announced that producer prices decreased again in July. According to the statistics office, prices fell by 2.4 percent on an annual basis last month. The decrease is mainly due to lower prices in the oil and energy sector. In June, producer prices fell by 3 percent.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to -0.22% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 7 August 2020

Market Information Friday 7 August 2020

Figures published by the US Department of Labor on Thursday show that 1.19 million Americans filed for social assistance benefits during the week ending August 1, 2020. A decrease compared to a week earlier, when the number of unemployed increased by 1.44 million. Economists had expected 1.42 million new unemployed in advance.

Industrial production in the Netherlands decreased by 9.7 percent in June 2020 compared to June 2019, according to figures published by Statistics Netherlands on Friday. On a monthly basis, the production of the Dutch industry increased by 2.1 percent in June 2020 compared to May 2020.

Chinese exports, expressed in US dollars, increased by 7.2 percent in July 2020 compared to July 2019. The increase was higher than anticipated because economists had expected an increase of just 0.1 percent. On the other hand, imports of foreign goods into China decreased by 1.4 percent in July 2020, compared to July 2019. Economists had expected an increase of 1.0 percent.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to -0.24% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 5 August 2020

Market Information Wednesday 5 August 2020

Factory orders in the United States increased 6.2 percent in June, following a strong increase in May after the blow from the corona crisis, according to figures from the United States Department of Commerce. Economists expected an increase of 5 percent. Factory orders rose by 7.7 percent in May.

European industrial producer prices increased in June. According to the European statistics agency Eurostat, prices charged by manufacturers in the eurozone for their products increased by 0.7 percent in June compared to May. On an annual basis, producer prices in the eurozone fell by 3.7 percent.

The price of gold increased above $ 2,000 per troy ounce on Tuesday night. According to analysts, the increase is mainly caused by investors anticipating a new support package from the US government to assist the US economy.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 0.4 basis point to -0.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to -0.26% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented

Market Information Tuesday 4 August 2020

Market Information Tuesday 4 August 2020

The turnover of the Dutch retail sector increased sharply in the second quarter of 2020. Turnover increased by 5.9% compared to the second quarter of 2019. In particular the food sector benefited from the closure of bars and restaurants in the Netherlands and recorded a 7.5% increase in turnover. The non-food sector recorded a small turnover decrease of 1.6%, which was largely due to less sales in the clothing industry (-29.5%) and the shoe industry (-25.3%). On average, entrepreneurs are pessimistic about the expected turnover of the third quarter of 2020.

Figures from research firms Markit and Caixin show that Chinese industrial activity grew to its highest level since early 2011 in July 2020. The purchasing managers index was 52.8 in July versus 51.2 in the previous month. These figures are in line with data from the Chinese government.

The Japanese government has published final figures showing that the Japanese economy contracted by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2020. With a contraction of 7.2% already recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019, the Japanese economy has entered a recession. The outlook for the second quarter is even more bleak due to the corona crisis. Analysts expect an average contraction of 20% of the Japanese economy.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 3 August 2020

Market Information Monday 3 August 2020

The European statistics agency Eurostat reported on Friday that the eurozone economy declined 12.1% in the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter. The differences between eurozone member states are considerable. Germany and Austria reported declines of 10.1% and 10.7%. Belgium reported a decline of -12.2% and Spain had by far the worst score with -18.5%. Portugal and France amounted to -13.8%. Of the Southern European countries, Italy scored an average -12.4%. Figures for Greece and the Netherlands are not available yet.

Consumer confidence in the US fell further in July. The University of Michigan announced that the index is at a level of 72.5 versus 73.2 the previous month. On the other hand, US consumer spending is increasing. The United States Department of Commerce reports spending has increased by 5.6% on a monthly basis.

Eurozone inflation increased to 0.4 percent year-on-year in July, from 0.3 percent in June, as was reported by Eurostat on the basis of a provisional figure. Economists in general had expected inflation to decline to 0.2 percent.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.40% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to -0.23% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.