Market Information Friday 27 November 2020

Market Information Friday 27 November 2020

The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned about the deteriorating outlook for funding in the eurozone. ECB chief economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that the ECB will recalibrate its instruments as needed to ensure funding conditions continue to support the economic recovery. Analysts are expecting the ECB to further increase the EUR 1,350 billion buy-back program in December 2020.

The Central Planning Bureau (CPB) expects the Dutch economy to contract by 4.2 percent in 2020. For 2021, CPB is expecting growth of 2.8 percent for 2021. This estimate takes into account the availability of potential vaccines. In August 2020, the CPB expected a decline of 5.0 percent for 2020 and a growth of 3.0 percent for 2021.

New figures from Statistics Netherlands on Friday show that the index for producer confidence increased in November 2020 to a level of 3.8 negative, from 5.8 negative in October 2020. In November 2020, producers were less gloomy about the order book and the expected activity. On the other hand, producers were slightly less positive about the stock of finished products.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.25% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 26 November 2020

Market Information Thursday 26 November 2020

The British economy is expected to shrink by 11.3% this year due to the corona crisis, according to the British Treasury Secretary. This would be the UK’s biggest contraction in more than three centuries. Looking to the future, it is predicted that unemployment will peak at 7.5% in the second quarter of 2021, which equates to 2.6 million unemployed people. In order to withstand the crisis, the British government plans to borrow EUR 422 billion this fiscal year.

Worldwide, 2.1% more goods were traded in September than in the previous month. This is less strong growth compared to July and August, which, according to the Central Planning Bureau (CPB), is weakening the recovery from the corona crisis. Emerging economies, such as China and Latin American countries, imported significantly more in September. In contrast, exports from these countries increased only slightly. In advanced economies, these developments are exactly the other way around.

On December 9, the European Commission will present legislative proposals for the digital sector. The Digital Services Act and the Digital Market Act must prepare Europe for the digital age. These Acts must ensure that European values such as democracy, freedom of expression and fair competition remain protected. Ultimately, this boils down to limiting the scope for action for big tech companies. It concerns, for example, how to deal with “illegal content”.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.24% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 25 November 2020

Market Information Wednesday 25 November 2020

The German economy grew 8.5 % in the third quarter. The German statistical office reports this based on final estimates. Preliminary calculations had previously reported a growth of 8.2 %. Higher consumer spending contributed to the growth being higher than previously calculated. In the second quarter, the German economy shrank by nearly 10 % due to the pressure of the first corona lockdown. The recovery in the third quarter was not so strong that the economy grew above the level of a year earlier. The gross domestic product (GDP) was 4 % less than in the third quarter of 2019.

Research institute Ifo has announced that German business leaders’ confidence in the economy has decreased. The index reached a level of 90.7 in November against 92.5 in October. It is the second month in a row that confidence decreases. Economists had anticipated a decrease to a level of 90.1. The sub-index for expectations for the next six months also decreased to a level of 91.5 from 94.7 a month earlier.

The Dow Jones index closed above 30,000 for the first time ever on Tuesday. The index gained 1.5 % to a level of 30,0046.24. The record follows news that US President Donald Trump will agree to a transfer of power to his successor Joe Biden. In addition, the expectations of the speedy arrival of vaccines against the corona virus created optimism. The S&P 500 won 1.6 % and also closed at a record high of 3,635.41. Tech exchange Nasdaq gained 1.3 % and ended at a level of 12,036.79.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to -0.23% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 24 November 2020

Market Information Tuesday 24 November 2020

Listed companies need to be more explicit in their business updates about the impact of the corona crisis on their companies. The Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM) reports in a report that this is of importance for investors. A research carried out by the AFM among 26 listed companies suffering negative effects from the corona crisis, shows that a small group does not provide any explanation. According to the AFM, a quarter of the companies examined gave a sufficient explanation.

Activity in the American industry grew faster in November than in October. This is reported by market researcher Markit on the basis of preliminary figures. Markit’s purchasing managers’ index for the industry in the US for this month noted a level of 56.7 compared to 53.4 in October. A level of 50 or more indicates growth, below 50 indicates a contraction. Economists expected a level of 53 for November.

The preliminary figures from Markit concerning the euro area, however, show a decline in industrial growth in November compared to October. For the euro area, Markit’s purchasing managers index stood at 53.6 this month, compared to 54.8 in October. The index for the euro area services sector shows a more significant contraction in November compared to last month. It stands at 41.3 in November compared to 46.9 in October.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to -0.25% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 20 November 2020

Market Information Friday 20 November 2020

The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index for the US economy increased by 0.7 percent in October 2020 to 108.2. In September 2020, the index also increased by 0.7 percent. The LEI index is a business cycle indicator that shows the development of the economy in the coming six months.

Figures from the US Department of Labor show that 742,000 Americans filed for social assistance benefits in the week ending November 14, 2020. This is an increase compared to the week before, when 711,000 applications were submitted. Economists had expected 710,000 new unemployed.

Consumer confidence in the Netherlands increased slightly in November 2020 compared to October 2020, according to Statistics Netherlands. The index representing confidence increased to negative 26 in November 2020 from negative 30 in October 2020. An index of negative 26 was still well below the average of 7 negative over the past 20 years.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.24% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 19 November 2020

Market Information Thursday 19 November 2020

Housing construction in the United States increased further in October. According to the US government, the number of homes under construction increased by 4.9% last month, compared to a month earlier. In September construction increased with 6.3%.

Global trade in goods continued to grow in September. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), trade volumes are still approximately 10.0% lower than a year earlier due to the corona crisis. Services trade also increased in most major economies in September, especially Japan and China. On November 23, the OECD will publish the figures on world trade in the third quarter.

Prior to the corona virus, world debt levels were already substantial. Credit supply increased enormously due to the consequences of the virus. The indebtedness will have reached USD 277,000 billion by the end of the year, equivalent to EUR 233,000 billion, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). Debt equates to 3.65 times world GDP. At the end of last year this ratio was 3.22. Chief economist Gita Gopinath of the International Monetary Fund argues that policymakers have no choice. They must stimulate government spending.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 18 November 2020

Market Information Wednesday 18 November 2020

New figures published by the U.S. government show that U.S. retail sales increased 0.3 % in October 2020 from a month earlier. Economists had expected an increase in sales of 0.5 %. In September 2020, sales decreased by a revised 1.6 %.

Industrial production in the United States increased 1.1 % in October compared to a decrease of 0.4 % a month earlier according to the Federal Reserve. Economists had expected an increase of 1 % on a monthly basis. Manufacturing utilization in the United States showed a level of 72.8 % in October, up from a revised 72 % in September.

Turnover of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 7.9 % lower in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the third quarter of 2019. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this based on new figures about the industry. Turnover declined most for petroleum producers. In the third quarter, turnover decreased by 7.8 % domestically and by 8 % abroad.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.23% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 17 November 2020

Market Information Tuesday 17 November 2020

Figures published by the Japanese government indicate that Japan’s economy showed growth for the first time in four quarters in the third quarter of this year. According to new figures, the economy of the Asian country showed growth of more than 5% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, in which the economy contracted by almost 8%. The increase in GDP in the third quarter was mainly due to growth in consumer spending. In the second quarter, consumer spending had decreased significantly due to the corona crisis and the state of emergency declared by the Japanese Government in May.

The Bundesbank alerts that the German economy is at risk of stagnation or even contraction in the fourth quarter. According to the German central bank, the new measures aimed at controlling the coronavirus are having a significant impact on the country’s economic recovery. However, the central bank expects the impact on the economy to be less severe than after the lockdown in March and April. Actual figures have not been mentioned.

The stock exchanges in New York closed at a profit on Monday, continuing on from last week’s profits. The Dow-Jones index and the S&P 500 increased to new record highs. Wall Street investors were positive with news of a corona vaccine from pharmaceutical company Moderna. The Dow Jones closed with a profit of 1.6% at 29,950.44 points. The S&P 500 increased 1.2% to 3626.91 points and the technology rating Nasdaq climbed 0.6% to 12,013.38 points.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.50% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.22% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 16 November 2020

Market Information Monday 16 November 2020

Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand and other countries in Southeast Asia, have signed a massive trade pact. The pact aims to lower trade tariffs in the region and create a free trade zone. Negotiations have lasted for eight years and with Sunday’s agreement the world’s largest trade pact was signed. The Asian stock markets showed solid gains on Monday.

Dutch private investors have become significantly more positive about the future development of the financial markets after the announcement of the victory of Joe Biden in the US presidential elections. While positive and negative sentiment were balanced in October, the optimists are now in the majority, according to a poll by online broker BinckBank.

The University of Michigan announced that, based on preliminary data, US consumer confidence in the economy fell in November to its lowest level since August. The mood is mainly depressed by the increasing corona infections in the United States.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.50% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.22% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 13 November 2020

Market Information Friday 13 November 2020

Consumer prices in the United States remained unchanged in October 2020 compared to September 2020, according to figures published by the US Department of Labor on Thursday. In September 2020, prices increased by 0.2 percent compared to August 2020. On an annual basis, prices increased by 1.2 percent in October 2020 compared to October 2019.

In addition, figures from the US Department of Labor show that 709,000 Americans filed for social assistance benefits in the week ending November 7, 2020. This is a decrease compared to the week before, when 757,000 applications were submitted. Economists had expected 740,000 new unemployed.

Industrial production in the eurozone, adjusted for seasonal influences, decreased by 0.4 percent in September 2020 compared to August 2020. This follows from figures from statistics agency Eurostat. Economists had anticipated a production increase of 0.8 percent. In August 2020, production increased by 0.6 percent compared to July 2020.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to -0.21% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 12 November 2020

Market Information Thursday 12 November 2020

The second issue of Eurobonds by the European Commission has been a success, according to budget commissioner Johannes Hahn. The bonds with a notional value of EUR 14 billion have been subscribed for EUR 175 billion by investors. The issue is part of a temporary EU credit program to prevent mass layoffs (SURE). In May this year, the Ministers of Finance agreed that the European Commission will issue Eurobonds. Last month, these Eurobonds were issued for the first time, with EUR 233 billion subscribed by investors. The proceeds will be lent on the same favourable terms to interested Member States in order to alleviate the costs of national regulations related to the coronavirus.

The progress made in the development of corona vaccines offers perspectives. However, according to President Klaas Knot of De Nederlandse Bank (DNB), this does not immediately mean that the corona crisis will come to an end. Upward economic development will not materialize overnight. The economic outlook for 2021 will remain uncertain for a long time to come.

In October, 171 companies were declared bankrupt, which is the lowest number since the end of 1999, based on figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) published this morning. CBS speaks of a “remarkably low level”. In October, there were especially many bankruptcies in the trade, construction and financial services sector.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.19% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 11 November 2020

Market Information Wednesday 11 November 2020

The confidence of German investors in the future of the economy has declined further. The ZEW research institute reports this on the basis of a poll in November. The ZEW index, which reflects confidence over the next three to six months, was 39 from 56.1 in October. Economists had anticipated a reading of 44.3. The index that measures confidence in the current situation is still negative. Pessimism has increased even further, to a level of -64.3 against -59.5 a month earlier.

British unemployment increased sharply in the third quarter. In July, August and September, 243.000 people were unemployed, bringing the unemployment rate to 4.8%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced this on Tuesday. It is the highest unemployment rate in four years. The number of unemployed is 0.7% higher than in the second quarter of 2020 and 0.9% higher compared to the third quarter of last year.

The budget committee of the European Parliament and temporary EU chair Germany reached an agreement on Tuesday on the new European multi-year budget and the corona recovery fund. The new EU budget (2021-2027) will increase slightly due to the recovery fund, from € 1074 billion to more than € 1086 billion. The extra budget will go to, among other things, fifteen European programs in the fields of climate, research and innovation, healthcare, defense, student exchange and migration.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to -0.18% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 10 November 2020

Market Information Tuesday 10 November 2020

The economic recovery in the countries that are part of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) slowed down in October. This movement had already started before governments in various countries announced new lockdown measures. Growth in the United States, Japan, Canada, Germany and Italy, among others, slowed down, as well as in India and Brazil. In France and Russia, on the other hand, the indicators signaled a stabilization of growth. According to the OECD, there was a downward trend in the United Kingdom. China was the only country where substantial growth was clearly visible.

Positive news regarding the effectiveness of pharmaceutical company Pfizer’s new corona vaccine led to a rise in the stock markets. Particularly shares of companies which are very sensitive to the corona crisis gained considerable stock market value. The Amsterdam AEX index closed at plus 3.7% at 593.93 points. The stock exchanges in London, Frankfurt and Paris won 4.7%, 4.9% and 7.6% respectively. In New York, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed respectively 3.0% and 1.2% higher. Tech companies that have recently benefited from working from home have actually suffered a decline, and tech-grader Nasdaq has lost 1.5% as a result.

Germany exported 2.3% more in September than a month earlier, according to the German Federal Statistical Office. This increase is higher than the 2% increase expected by economists. Exports of Europe’s largest economy have been recovering since June after the significant drop in March and April. However, the pace of recovery was slower in September than in August, when exports increased by a revised 2.9%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to -0.19% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 9 November 2020

Market Information Monday 9 November 2020

The average daily industrial production in the Netherlands was 6.8 percent lower in September than in the same month a year earlier, as reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). After three months in which the decline was getting smaller, there was a larger drop in production again in September. Statistics Netherlands provides no specific cause for the stronger contraction. The emergence of the second wave of the coronavirus may play a role, with measures to tackle the spread of the virus both domestically and abroad.

The stock exchange in Japan kicked off the new trading week with a solid gain on Monday and its highest level in nearly three decades. Investors responded positively to Democrat Joe Biden’s election victory, who officially claimed profits from President Donald Trump last Saturday. The Nikkei in Tokyo ended with a gain of 2.1 percent on 24,839.84 points. The Japanese main index thus reached the highest level since November 1991.

The employment level in the United States grew at a lower rate last month compared to September. However, employment growth exceeded expectations. The US Department of Labor announced that in October 638,000 jobs were added excluding the agricultural sector. Economists had generally expected an increase of 593,000 jobs.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to -0.26% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 6 November 2020

Market Information Friday 6 November 2020

Retail sales in the eurozone decreased by 2.0 percent in September 2020 compared to August 2020, according to figures published by the European statistics agency Eurostat on Thursday. Economists had anticipated a decrease of 1.5 percent. On an annual basis, September 2020 saw an increase in retail sales of 2.2 percent compared to September 2019.

According to a new estimate by the European Commission, the economy in the eurozone will contract by 7.8 percent in 2020. For 2021 and 2022, the European Commission expects a growth of 4.2 and 3.0 percent respectively. In the previous forecast in July 2020, the European Commission assumed a contraction of 8.7 percent of the economy in 2020.

Industrial production in Germany increased by 1.6 percent in September 2020 compared to August 2020, according to figures published by Destatis, the German statistical office, on Friday. Economists had anticipated an increase of 2.5 percent. Compared to September 2019, production decreased by 7.3 percent in September 2020.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.28% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 5 November 2020

Market Information Thursday 5 November 2020

Joe Biden is slowly paving the way to victory. Biden currently has 264 electors in his camp, against 214 electors of President Donald Trump. Biden therefore needs another 6 electors to obtain the required number of 270 electors. However, the concern about the absence of the result of the elections is increasing. Demonstrators have taken to the streets at various locations and arrests are reported. Donald Trump is trying to stop vote counting and has filed lawsuits in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan to force states to stop counting votes.

Prices of goods and services in the Netherlands increased on average by 1.2% in October 2020 compared to a year earlier. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) in the monthly figures on monetary depreciation. As in September, it was mainly the prices for clothing that drove up inflation.

Employment in corporate America grew less than expected in October. According to pay slip processor ADP, 365,000 jobs were added. Economists had expected on average plus 650,000 jobs. Compared to September, when 753,000 jobs were added, the numbers disappointed.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to -0.27% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 4 November 2020

Market Information Wednesday 4 November 2020

Retail sales were 9.2% higher in the third quarter of 2020 than in the previous year, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS) based on new quarterly figures on retail trade. That is the strongest increase since the measurements started in 2005. The volume increased by 7.3%. Between July and September, online sales increased by almost 40% compared to 2019, a slower increase than in the second quarter (55%). Retailers are also optimistic about the development of turnover in the fourth quarter.

Factory orders in the United States increased with 1.1% in September from a month earlier, according to the US Department of Commerce. Economists had anticipated an increase of 1%. In August, factory orders increased by a revised 0.6%.

The American elections are a close call. All polling stations in the United States are closed. So far, there have been few surprises in the states that were previously expected to turn red (Republican) or blue (Democratic). Biden emphasized in his speech in Delaware that the final results may take a while.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.51% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to -0.25% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 3 November 2020

Market Information Tuesday 3 November 2020

Industrial activity in the euro area in October turned out stronger than expected. This was announced by British market researcher Markit based on final figures. Markit’s purchasing managers’ index, which measures industrial activity, stood at 54.8 in October compared to 53.7 in September. This is the highest level since July 2018 and the fourth consecutive month of growth for industry in the euro area. A preliminary estimate reported a level of 54.4. A level of 50 or more indicates growth, including contraction.

The improvement of the Dutch industrial activity came to a virtual standstill in October. This is the result of the second corona wave, according to the Dutch Association of Purchasing Managers (Nevi). Nevi’s purchasing managers index, which measures economic activity, stood at 50.4 compared to 52.5 in September.

US industrial activity in October increased again compared to a month earlier. This continues the recovery since the low point at the beginning of the corona crisis. This was reported by market researcher ISM. The ISM purchasing managers index stood at 59.3 compared to 55.4 in September.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to -0.27% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.