Market Information Monday 16 September 2019

Market Information Monday 16 September 2019

Last Saturday drone attacks have been executed on two oil installations in Saudi Arabia. The attack was claimed by Yemeni Houthi rebels. However, the United States accuses Iran of being behind the attacks. The attack has halted approximately 5% of worldwide oil production. Analysts estimate that it will take weeks before production is fully restored. Oil prices rose sharply due to the news; Monday morning the price of a barrel of Brent oil had risen by around 9.6% to USD 66.02.

A preliminary estimate from the University of Michigan shows that consumer confidence in the United States increased slightly in September 2019. The index that measures confidence rose from 89.8 in August to 92.0 this month. Economists estimated on average an increase to 90.8.

The president of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Klaas Knot has spoken out in an official statement against the newest measures of the ECB. Last week the ECB lowered the deposit rate and announced to restart its Quantitative Easing programme. According to Knot, the policy is disproportionate to current economic conditions, and there are valid arguments to question the effectiveness of the measures.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 8 basis points to 0.00% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 13 September 2019

Market Information Friday 13 September 2019

Eurostat reported that the industrial production in the Eurozone decreased by 0.4% in July compared to the previous month, while economists expected, on average, a decrease of 0.1%. In June the industrial production fell by a revised 1.4%. Earlier, Eurostat reported a decrease in production of 1.6% for this month. The Industrial production for the European Union decreased by 0.1% in July, after an increase of 1.4% in June.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reports that the economic growth of OECD countries decreased slightly in the second quarter of 2019. According to preliminary estimations, the growth decreased from 0.6 % in the first quarter to 0.4% in the second quarter. The economic growth of the G20 also decreased. This growth was 0.8% in the first quarter of 2019 and 0.7% in the second quarter.

Statistics Netherlands reports that retail sales in the Netherlands in July have increased compared to the same month one year earlier. Turnover for the Dutch retailers, corrected for the amount of shopping days in July, increased by 3.4%. The increase was seen in most branches. Only drug stores, clothing stores, domestic technology and consumer electronics saw a decrease in their revenue.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.13% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 12 September 2019

Market Information Thursday 12 September 2019

Statistics Netherlands has reported that the volume of exports in July 2019 was 1% higher than in the same month a year earlier. The growth rate is about the same as in June 2019. In July, exports of chemical products, machinery and food products grew, while exports of electrical equipment decreased. The volume of imports was 3.3% higher in July 2019 compared to July 2018.

The German federal statistics agency Destatis has announced that inflation in Germany has fallen from 1.7% in July 2019 to 1.4% in August 2019. This figure is in line with previous estimates. Based on the harmonised European measurement method, inflation stood at 1.0% in August, compared to 1.1% in July.

Press agency Bloomberg has reported that China is considering allowing the import of American agricultural products again without restrictions. The suspension of trade restrictions would be a sign of goodwill to the United States in the run-up to the upcoming resumption of trade talks. Earlier, President Trump had already announced that he would postpone new import duties, which would take effect on 1 October, until 15 October. Negotiations on a new trade agreement are expected to resume in Washington next week.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.13% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 11 September 2019

Market Information Wednesday 11 September 2019

Tomorrow, Thursday 12 September, the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will take place. President Draghi is expected to announce a new stimulus package. From March 2015 until the end of 2018, the ECB already bought €2,600 billion in Eurozone bonds. Inflation has decreased since mid-2018 and has been fluctuating around 1.5%. Meanwhile, interest rates on saving accounts have decreased to almost 0%.

The French National Statistical Office reported that production in the French industry increased by 0.3% in July 2019, compared to a 2.3% decrease in June 2019. Economists expected a production growth of 0.5%. On an annual basis, production in the French industry decreased by 0.2% in July.

According to President Klaas Knot of De Nederlandsche Bank, a larger rental sector is needed for a healthy housing market. According to Knot, start-ups could also benefit fully from this.
Starters would then have an attractive alternative to buying and would be able to save for their first home and would therefore have to borrow less.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.41% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to -0.13% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 10 September 2019

Market Information Tuesday 10 September 2019

The Great Britain economy increased by 0.3% in July compared to a month earlier, according to figures published by the British National Statistical Office. In June, the economy of Great Britain remained constant. This growth rate exceeded the expectation of economists, with an average growth of 0.1% expected.

According to figures published by Statistics Netherlands, the average daily production of the Dutch industry decreased by 0.2% in July 2019 compared to July 2018. Of the eight major business classes within the industry, the production of the electrical and electronic equipment industry increased by more than 11.0%. The producer confidence in the industry remained constant in August.

The producer prices in China decreased further by 0.8% in August 2019 compared to August 2018, according to figures of the Chinese National Statistical Office. This while the consumer prices increased by 2.8% in August 2019, compared to August 2018. The Chinese government takes measures to stimulate the economy, for example the relaxation of capital requirements for banks.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to -0.16% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 9 September 2019

Market Information Monday 9 September 2019

The Eurozone economy increased by 0.2% in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, according to final figures of Eurostat. Employment in the eurozone also increased by 0.2% in the past quarter compared to the first quarter.

The Chinese central bank announced on Friday that it will further ease its monetary policy. This implies that banks will hold fewer capital reserves. The central bank’s goal is to stimulate the domestic economy, which is struggling with headwind due to the trade war. The so-called reserve ratio for all banks will be reduced by 0.5% as of 16 September. This will result in more liquidity, which in turn makes it easier for Chinese consumers and businesses to secure credit.

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) decreased its interest rates for the third time in a row on Friday. The interest rate was lowered by 0.25%, to 7.0%. This brings the interest rate to the lowest level since March 2004. Russia is suffering from slow economic growth and weakening inflation.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to -0.21% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 6 September 2019

Market Information Friday 6 September 2019

The federal statistical office of Germany, Destatis, announced that the German industrial production decreased by 0.6% in July with respect to one month earlier, after a decrease of 1.5% in June. This differs from the average expectation of economists, as an increase of 0.4% was expected. On annual basis, the industrial production decreased by 4.2% in July.

The American payslip processor ADP has announced that employment in the private sector in the United States has grown above expectation in August. According to ADP, 195,000 jobs were created while economists expected an increase of 148,000 jobs. In July, an additional 142,000 jobs were created.

The US Department of Labor announced that labor productivity in the United States, excluding the agricultural sector, increased by 2.3% in the second quarter of 2019. Economists expected an increase of 2.2%. The unit labor cost rose by 2.6% last quarter.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to -0.16% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 5 September 2019

Market Information Thursday 5 September 2019

Today, Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He announced that China and the United States will meet for trade talks in Washington at the beginning of October. If there will be no agreement in the trade talks, the import tariffs imposed by both countries are likely to be raised again on 15 December.

During a hearing in the European Parliament, the proposed new European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that it is time for the ECB to review its policies. Lagarde promises to review the costs and benefits of controversial ECB policy tools such as negative interest rates and large-scale bond purchases, even as she signaled she would leave them in place.

According to the European Statistical Office Eurostat, seasonally adjusted retail sales in the euro area decreased by 0.6% on a monthly basis in July, following a 1.2% increase in June. Retail sales across the European Union decreased by 0.5% in July, compared to a 1.3% increase in June.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.45% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to -0.25% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 4 September 2019

Market Information Wednesday 4 September 2019

The industrial activity in the United States decreased in August for the first time in more than three years, according to the ISM research institute. The purchasing managers’ index for US industry decreased to 49.1 in August, compared to 51.2 in July. This is the lowest level since January 2016.

According to the European statistics institute Eurostat, producer prices in the Eurozone increased by 0.2% in August, compared to July. This was in line with the expectations of economists. In the entire European Union, producer prices increased by 0.3% in August, compared to July.

Last night Boris Johnson lost the vote on a no deal Brexit by a margin of 328-301. With the vote, the UK Parliament gives itself the right to enter a law proposal before its enforeced suspension next week, that allows for a delay in the Brexit date to 2020 if no agreement has been reached on October 31. Thereby a no deal Brexit has been thwarted. Consequently, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that he will organize new elections.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.44% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to -0.28% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 3 September 2019

Market Information Tuesday 3 September 2019

Figures published by the Dutch Association of Purchasing Managers show that economic activity in the Dutch industry has increased in August to the highest level in three months. The index reached a score of 51.6, against a score of 50.7 in July. Economists expected a score of 50.7 for August. The increased activity is mainly caused by an increase in the volume of orders, which in turn caused more purchasing activities and employment.

The Swiss Federal Statistical Office has stated that inflation in August was 0.3% on a year-on-year basis, the same figure as in the previous month. Economists expected a price increase of 0.2% for August.

Research agency Markit announced that economic activity in the industry of the eurozone has decreased again in August. The index reached a score of 47.0, compared to a score of 46.5 in the previous month. This is in line with economists’ expectations. The index score for Germany was 43.5, while the index score for the United Kingdom decreased from 48.0 in July to 47.4 in August.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at -0.27% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 2 September 2019

Market Information Monday 2 September 2019

Eurostat reported that the unemployment rate in the Eurozone remained stable at 7.5% of the labour force in July 2019. This keeps the unemployment rate at the lowest level since July 2008. For the Netherlands, Eurostat reports unemployment to be at 3.4%. The highest unemployment rate was measured in Greece (17.2%), while the lowest unemployment rate was measured in the Czech Republic (2.1%).

Last weekend, two Chinese research agencies published the industry purchasing manager indices for August 2019. The Chinese government research agency reported a decrease in the index from 49.7 to 49.5, while Markit and Caixin reported a slight increase from 49.9 to 50.4. The figures from the Chinese government focus primarily on large state-owned industrial companies, while Markit and Caixin focus primarily on private companies.

The French national statistical office has reported, based on preliminary figures, that inflation remained stable at 1.1% in August 2019. This is higher than the 1.0% that economists had anticipated. Inflation in France measured by the European harmonized method decreased to 1.2%, compared to 1.3% in July 2019.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to -0.27% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.