Market Information Wednesday 31 July 2019

Market Information Wednesday 31 July 2019

Based on preliminary statistics from the German Federal Statistical Office inflation in Germany in July 2019 increased to 1.7 percent on an annual basis compared to 1.6 percent on an annual basis in June 2019. Economists generally expected an inflation rate of 1.5 percent.

The European Commission (EC) reported that eurozone consumer confidence fell in July 2019 compared to previous month. The indicator decreased from 103.3 in June to 102.7 in July, the lowest level in more than three years. According to the EC, the reduction in confidence was caused by developments in the industrial and construction sectors.

The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its policy interest rate today for the first time in more than ten years. Analysts expect the policy committee to decide on a decrease of 25 basis point to a bandwidth of 2.00 and 2.25 percent. Although the American economy has been performing well for years, there are concerns about several risks. The main risks are the continuing trade war with China and tensions with other trading partners, such as the European Union and Mexico.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.35% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.05% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 30 July 2019

Market Information Tuesday 30 July 2019

Statistics Netherlands stated that producer confidence in the industry has increased in July 2019. Producer confidence increased from 3.3 in June to 3.9 in July. The last twenty years producer confidence was 1.0 on average.

Research agency GfK announced that consumer confidence has decreased slightly in Germany. The index measuring consumer confidence was 9.7 in July 2019, compared to 9.8 in June. This is in line with economists’ expectations.

INSEE stated that the French economy in the second quarter of 2019 has grown by 0.2% on a quarter on quarter basis, compared to 0.4% in the first quarter. Economists expected a growth of 0.3%. The growth was caused by increased domestic demand.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.05% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 29 July 2019

Market Information Monday 29 July 2019

The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates on Wednesday to boost the economy for the first time in more than ten years. On Friday a first estimate was published of the growth of the US economy in the second quarter. The economic growth decreased to 2.1 percent on an annual basis, from 3.1 percent on annual basis in the first quarter.

According to statistics published by the Chinese National Statistical Office the profits in the industrial sector of China decreased. Profits decreased by 3.1 percent in June, compared to the same period last year. The main causes are the suppressed demand for Chinese-made products and the trade war with the United States.

London is preparing for a no-deal Brexit. Boris Johnson took over the premiership from Theresa May on Wednesday and promised that the United Kingdom will leave the EU by October 31 at the latest. However, he is still pursuing a new agreement on the Brexit, after the British Parliament rejected the current arrangement. Michael Gove, responsible for the preparation of the Brexit, highlighted the preparations for a no-deal Brexit as the government’s key priority.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.37% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.06% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 26 July 2019

Market Information Friday 26 July 2019

Figures published by the U.S. Department of Commerce show that orders for sustainable goods in the United States have increased by 2.0% in June. Economists expected an increase of 0.7%. In May, orders for sustainable goods increased by 2.3% compared to the previous month.

The monthly World Trade Monitor of the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) shows that world trade volume increased by 0.3% in May, while this volume decreased in April by 0.6%. Worldwide industrial production increased by 0.2% in May and by 0.6% in April.

The American Department of Commerce reported that wholesale inventories in the US increased by 0.2% in June. Economists expected an increase of 0.5% in this month. In May, inventories increased by 0.4%.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.37% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.07% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 25 July 2019

Market Information Thursday 25 July 2019

Markit published preliminary figures, which show that industrial activity in the eurozone decreased more in July 2019 than in the previous month. The purchasing managers’ index fell from 47.6 in June 2019 to 46.4 in July 2019. Economists expected an increase of the index to 47.7. The purchasing managers’ index also fell in the services sector compared to the previous month. Today the ECB meets for an interest rate decision. The lower figures may encourage the ECB to lower its interest rates early, instead of in September 2019.

US Finance Minister Steve Mnuchin will travel to China with a trade delegation next week to further negotiate a new trade agreement. Donald Trump and Xi Jingping already agreed at the end of June that they would resume negotiations. Trade negotiations between countries have already taken place by telephone. Thus far, this did not lead to significant results; Trump recently threatened with new import duties on Chinese goods.

The US Department of Commerce has announced that in June 2019, the number of new-build properties in the United States has increased. Sales increased by 7% on a monthly basis. Compared to May 2018, approximately 646,000 new-build properties were sold in the US.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 0.06% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 24 July 2019

Market Information Wednesday 24 July 2019

The IMF has further reduced its growth forecast for the global economy. The ongoing trade war between the United States and China is, according to the IMF, the main cause for this reduction. For 2019, the IMF estimates 3.2 % growth for the world economy, 0.1 percent point lower than the fund previously expected.

Positive results on the European stock markets yesterday, caused by the positive quarterly results of large European companies. Especially the automotive and high-tech sector achieved strong price gains. The AEX index in Amsterdam closed at a 18 years high.

The decline of the industrial production in Germany continues. The PMI index has decreased even further, from 45.0 in June to 43.1 in July. As a consequence the euro decreased relative to the US dollar. A decision by the ECB on monetary policy will follow tomorrow.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.09% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 23 July 2019

Market Information Tuesday 23 July 2019

Figures published by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) show that investments in property, plant and equipment have increased by 8.9% in May 2019 compared to May 2018. Investments were also higher than the previous month. Investments in May were primarily higher in housing, industrial and commercial buildings, transport and machines compared to a year ago. According to the CBS, conditions for investments are less favourable in July than in May.

Figures from Statistics Netherlands and the Kadaster show that prices of houses for sale were 7% higher in June 2019 compared to June 2018. The increase is smaller than in the previous two years. The number of houses sold decreased by 16% compared to June 2018. In the first half of 2019, sales decreased by 5%.

The United States government and leaders from Congress have reached an agreement on the budget and a higher borrowing limit. This should remove the threat of a government shutdown for the next two years. The limit will be several billions higher according to the agreement. The United States budget deficit might reach the one trillion dollar mark next year.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.35% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.10% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 22 July 2019

Market Information Monday 22 July 2019

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) has reported that consumer confidence increased in July 2019 compared to the previous month. The index that measures confidence grew to a level of 2.0, compared to a level of 0.0 in June. According to CBS, consumers were more positive about the economic climate, while consumers’ willingness to buy also increased.

Oil prices have risen sharply last weekend after Iranian soldiers entered two oil tankers on Friday in the Strait of Hormuz. One of the ships, the Stena Impero, sailed under the British flag. The British government has announced that it will take countermeasures. In addition, President Trump has indicated to be willing to assist the British. The Strait of Hormuz is an important route for oil tankers to Saudi Arabia. As a result of the turmoil, the price for a barrel of Brent oil rose from USD 61.93 on Thursday end of day to USD 63.52 on Monday morning.

President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve again last weekend. He blames the Fed for keeping its interest rates unnecessarily high. On Friday, the President of the Bank of New York gave a speech, hinting at a Fed interest rate cut during its policy meeting at the end of this month. In the meantime, analysts indicate that they also expect an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.35% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.11% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 19 July 2019

Market Information Friday 19 July 2019

The British Office for National Statistics reports that retail sales in the UK in June increased with 0.9% on a monthly basis. In May, the retail sales decreased with 0.4%. Economists expected a decrease of 0.2%.

According to the Conference Board, the prospects for the US economy decreased in June. The economic barometer decreased by 0.3%, while economists expected an increase of 0.1%. In May the index remained unchanged.

The United States Department of Labor announced that the amount of initial jobless claims has increased by 8,000 compared to last week to a total of 216,000. This number is in line with the expectations of economists.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.36% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.13% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 18 July 2019

Market Information Thursday 18 July 2019

According to housing platform Pararius, the increase in rents for houses in the Dutch private rental sector is slowing down. In the second quarter of 2019, the rental prices increased with 3.1% on a yearly basis. This is the lowest increase since the first quarter of 2015. In Amsterdam, according to Pararius an indicator for the national rental market, rents increased with 2.8% on a yearly basis in the second quarter of 2019.

Eurostat reports that inflation in June in the Eurozone has increased to 1.3% on an annual basis. In May, the inflation was 1.2%. The core inflation increased to 1.1% on an annual basis, compared to 0.8% in May.

The US Department of Commerce reports that construction of new houses decreased 0.9% in June compared to the month before. Economists expected a decrease of 0.7%. In May, the construction of new houses decreased with 0.4%.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.35% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 0.14% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 17 July 2019

Market Information Wednesday 17 July 2019

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment declined to -24.5 for July, compared to -21.1 in June. As a consequence the euro, relative to the US dollar, decreased from USD 1.1244 to USD 1.1211 yesterday. The ZEW-index reflects confidence among institutional investors. This decrease can be explained, to a great extent, by the uncertain German export industry.

The British pound sank to the lowest level since 2017 versus the US dollar and hit a six-month low against the euro. The UK currency slipped to USD 1.2382 this morning. The decline follows the statement of the UK leadership candidate, Boris Johnson, opposing the Irish border backstop. This directly increases the chance for a no-deal Brexit.

The United States Department of Commerce announced an increase in business inventories of 0.3% in May compared to April. Sales rose 0.2% in that month.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.34% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.18% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 16 July 2019

Market Information Tuesday 16 July 2019

The National Bureau of Statistics of China stated that the economic growth in China has decreased to 6.2% in the second quarter of 2019. This is the lowest growth rate since 1992. Economists also expected a growth rate of 6.2%. In the first quarter of 2019, the Chinese economy grew by 6.4%. The low growth rate is mainly caused by the trade war with the United States.

Chinese policy makers have recently implemented measures to stimulate the economy. Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics of China show that industrial production has increased by 6.3% in June 2019 on a year-on-year basis. Economists expected a growth figure 5.2%. In addition, retail sales increased by 9.8% on a year-on-year basis in June, compared to an expected growth of 8.5%.

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) announced that the export of goods increased by 1.5% in May 2019 compared to the same month in the previous year. Imports increased by 3.0% in the same timeframe. According to the CBS, the conditions are less favourable for exports in July 2019 than in May.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.34% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 0.20% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 15 July 2019

Market Information Monday 15 July 2019

Last week, around fifty Dutch financial institutions, representing EUR 3000 billion of loans and investments, have launched a climate-programme. The program states that the institutions will measure the CO2 levels of their portfolios and that their clients should bring down their emission levels by at least 49% in 2030. Parties that do not comply can face difficulties with raising new funds at these institutions.

Chinese imports and exports decreased with 7.3% and 1.3% respectively in June. Economists expected a decrease of 4.6% and 1.4% respectively. Experts state that the decrease is caused by the American import tariffs and weak local demand.

Statistics Netherlands state that Dutch retailers reported an increase in sales of 3.1% in May compared to a year earlier. In the food sector sales decreased with 0.4%, in the non-food sector sales increased with 3.5% and online sales have increased with 19.6% compared to a year earlier.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.34% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 0.24% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 12 July 2019

Market Information Friday 12 July 2019

Figures published by the U.S. Labor department show that the inflation rate was 1.6% in June on an annual basis, compared to 1.8% the previous month. This is in line with the expectations of economists. Core inflation decreased from 2.1% in May to 2.0% in June.

The Japanese ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) stated that the Japanese industrial production increased by 2.0% in May with respect to April. This is lower than the preliminary estimate of 2.3%. On an annual basis, the industrial production shrunk by 2.1%, more than the estimated decrease of 1.8%.

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) announced that the number of companies that declared bankruptcy in the Netherlands (sole proprietorship excluded) increased slightly in June. A total of 253 companies were declared bankrupt, 6 more than in May. Relatively speaking, most bankruptcies were declared in the catering industry.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.33% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 0.22% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 11 July 2019

Market Information Thursday 11 July 2019

From a speech to Congress by Federal Reserve chairman Powell it appears to be likely that the Fed will cut interest rates later this month. In the past few days, the financial markets have been looking forward to Powell’s speech. Even though concrete affirmations were not given, the futures on the American stock indices increased with 0.7% and the yield on the 10-year bonds increased with 6 basis points after the publication of the speech.

The European Committee expects that the economy in the Eurozone will show a moderate growth of 1.2% in 2019. The Netherlands is expected to perform above average with a predicted growth of 1.6%, where on the other hand countries like Germany and Italy have predicted growth rates of 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively.

The French statistical office reports that the French industrial production in May increased with 2.1% on a monthly basis. In April, the industrial production increased with 0.5%. Economist expect an average increase of 0.3% per month.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.34% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 0.17% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 10 July 2019

Market Information Wednesday 10 July 2019

EU finance ministers in Brussels have formally agreed with the appointment of Christine Lagarde as President of the European Central Bank (ECB) as of 1 November. Last week, Lagarde was nominated as candidate. Next, a consultation round with the ECB board and the vote of the European Parliament will follow. Finally, at the end of October, she is expected to be appointed by the EU leaders.

On Tuesday, the average yield on Dutch 10-year government bonds in the primary market has reached an all-time low, with an average effective return of -0.205%. The low yield is caused by the expectation for monetary policy easing by the central banks.

According to sector organisation Aedes, at least half of the smaller Dutch social housing corporations will disappear within the next five years because of rising accountancy costs. Small housing corporations rent less than 5000 homes. Aedes explains that the accountancy costs amount to approximately 15% of the total business expenses for a small corporation and can therefore be disastrous for small housing corporations.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.34% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 0.14% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 9 July 2019

Market Information Tuesday 9 July 2019

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects that the economic growth of its member states will remain stable. According to its index of economic indicators there will be stable economic growth in China, India, Russia, Japan, Canada and the United Kingdom, while slightly lower growth is expected for the United States.

Figures from the Swiss State Secretariat of Economic Affairs show that unemployment has decreased in June 2019 compared to May 2019. Unemployment was at 2.1% in June, compared to 2.3% in the previous month. Economists expected a rate of 2.2%.

Figures published by the German Federal Statistical Office show that exports have increased by 1.1% in May 2019 compared to April. Economists expected an increase of 0.9%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.34% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.10% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 8 July 2019

Market Information Monday 8 July 2019

European statistics bureau Eurostat reports that the surplus on the current accounts of EU countries has decreased in the first quarter of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. In the first quarter of 2019 a surplus of EUR 40.5 billion was reported, compared to EUR 58.3 billion in the same period in 2018.

According to the Dutch association for institutional investors Eumedion, shareholders increasingly voted against the proposals from the board of Dutch listed companies this year. In 2019, 14 agenda items were voted-down, while in 2018 and 2017, 5 and 8 items were voted-down respectively. Shareholders opposed to proposals to change remuneration policy and proposals to give ‘carte blanche’ to issue new shares.

The German Federal Statistical Office reports that production in the German industry has decreased with 0.3% in May, compared to the month before. In April the industrial production decreased with 2%. Economists expected an average increase of 0.4%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.34% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 0.11% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 5 July 2019

Market Information Friday 5 July 2019

Figures from statistics agency Eurostat show that retail sales in the Eurozone decreased in May by 0.3% compared to one month earlier, while economists expected an increase of 0.3%. Sales in April were also lower than the month before. In April sales decreased with 0.1%. Sales in the whole European Union decreased by 0.4% in May, after a decrease of 0.1% in March. Decreasing sales might trigger the ECB to take further actions to stimulate the economy.

Aviation sector association IATA reports that worldwide demand for flights in April has increased by 4.5% following a similar decrease of 4.4% in March. The worldwide demand is still below the long-term average. IATA attributes the lower than average demand to a decrease in business confidence and increase in trade tensions. The worldwide average seat occupancy rate of an airliner is 81.5%.

Destatis stated that factory goods orders in Germany decreased by 2.2% in May compared to one month earlier. This decrease significantly exceeds the expected decrease of 0.2% by economists. The decrease on an annual basis is 8.6%, while a decrease of 6.2% was expected.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to -0.34% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 0.08% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 4 July 2019

Market Information Thursday 4 July 2019

The European Committee will not take disciplinary measures against Italy for violating the European budgetary regulations. The committee decided so after the Italian government took additional measures to reduce the budgetary deficit with an extra EUR 7.6 billion.

Since yesterday 8 a.m., the yield on Belgian 10-year government bonds has dropped below zero. This morning around 8.30 a.m. a new all-time low of -0.048% was reached. The decreasing yield is caused by increasing demand for Belgium bonds, which are seen as safe investments.

Payroll processor ADP reports that in June, employment in the US increased less than expected. A growth of 102,000 jobs was reported, where a growth of 140,000 was expected. Compared to May the increase in jobs in June was much higher, when a growth of 41,000 jobs was reported.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to -0.33% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 0.11% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 3 July 2019

Market Information Wednesday 3 July 2019

Yesterday in Brussels, the 28 EU leaders decided to nominate German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen as the new President of the European Commission. Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel will succeed EU President Donald Tusk. In addition, the EU leaders nominate IMF chief Christine Lagarde to be the new president of the European Central Bank.

According to the European statistical office Eurostat, producer prices in the eurozone decreased by 0.1% in May compared to April. In April producer prices decreased with 0.3%. Economists expected an increase of 0.1%. On an annual basis, producer prices increased by 1.6% in May.

The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered Australia’s official interest rate to an all-time low. The central bank lowered the interest rate to 1.0%. This is the second rate decrease in just two months. The last time Australia decreased interest rates for two consecutive months was in 2012.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.31% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.15% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 2 July 2019

Market Information Tuesday 2 July 2019

Yesterday, Eurostat announced that unemployment in the Eurozone decreased to 7.5% in May. This is the lowest level of unemployment since July 2008. The unemployment rate of the European Union decreased to 6.3% in May, the lowest rate ever recorded.

Based on final figures, market research agency Markit reports that economic activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone has decreased in June 2019 compared to May 2019. The Purchasing Managers Index fell to 47.6, compared to 47.7 in the previous month. Economists expected a value of 47.8.

Research agency ISM stated that the economic activity in the manufacturing sector of the United States has increased at a lower rate in June 2019 compared to May 2019. The Purchasing Managers Index decreased to 51.7, compared to 52.1 in the previous month. Economists expected a value of 51.0.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.31% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.16% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 1 July 2019

Market Information Monday 1 July 2019

During the G20 summit in Osaka, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping agreed to continue negotiations on a new trade agreement. In addition, President Trump has indicated that as long as negotiations are ongoing, new import duties worth USD 300 billion will not be implemented. Asian stock markets responded optimistically to the news on Monday morning.

Research firms Markit and Caixin have published figures showing that the Chinese industry contracted in June 2019 compared to a month earlier. The PMI fell from 50.2 in May to 49.4 in June. Both the demand for products and production declined. The order portfolio also decreased across the board.

Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached an agreement to extend existing oil production restrictions by 6 to 9 months. In doing so, trying countries are trying to stabilize falling oil prices as a result of rising US oil inventories and the global economic slowdown. Today and tomorrow, OPEC countries (including Saudi Arabia) meet in Vienna to discuss the extension of the production restrictions.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.31% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.18% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.