Market Information Friday 29 March 2019

Market Information Friday 29 March 2019

The United States Federation of Real Estate Agents showed that the number of home sales in the United States decreased by 1.0% on a monthly basis in February. Economists expected a decrease of 0.5% on a monthly basis. In January, the number of home sales increased by 4.3%.

The German Federal Statistical, Destatis, Office reported that annual inflation in Germany decreased to 1.3% in February, compared to 1.5% in January. Economists had expected inflation to remain unchanged. According to the European harmonised method, the inflation in February was 1.5%.

Statistics Netherlands stated that Dutch industry output prices were 2.1% higher in February compared to one year earlier. This increase is higher than a month earlier, when output prices where 1.0% higher compared to a year earlier. Developments in output prices are closely related to price developments in crude oil. The price of a barrel Brent Crude oil increased by 4.1% in February.

Rating agency Fitch has increased the rating for BNG Bank from “AA+” to “AAA”. Moody’s and S&P already assigned BNG Bank an “Aaa” and an “AAA” rating respectively, making BNG Bank one of the most creditworthy banks in the world.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 0.46% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 28 March 2019

Market Information Thursday 28 March 2019

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced yesterday that they expect that the inflation goal, below, but close to 2%, will be reached in 2019 despite the lowered economic growth. Additionally, Mario Draghi, ECB-president, announced that the ECB intends to counteract unintended side effects of negative interest rates for banks. After this announcement, the share prices of European banks increased. Today, ECB chief economist, Peter Praet, tempered Draghi’s words. He said that the ECB will only counteract the effects of negative interest rates for banks if monetary policy demands it.

The British House of Commons voted yesterday on eight alternative Brexit scenarios. However, none of them got a majority. The vote was indicative and was against the will of the cabinet. In the meantime, prime minister May tried to gather support for her own Brexit deal. She offered to resign if she wins support for her deal. The chance that she will succeed is small, because the Northern Irish party DUP, which props up May’s government, has said that they will not support May’s deal.

The US Department of Commerce reported that the trade deficit of the US in January has decreased compared to the month before. In January, the deficit was USD 51.1 billion, compared to USD 59.9 billion in December. The expected deficit for January was USD 57 billion.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 0.44% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 27 March 2019

Market Information Wednesday 27 March 2019

Market researcher Conference Board announced that consumer confidence in the economy decreased in March 2019. The confidence indicator for March 2019 was 124.1 versus 131.4 in February. Economists expected a level of 132.5.

Yesterday, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that disposable income of Dutch households, adjusted for inflation, increased by 2.6% in 2018. This is the strongest growth since 2001, when incomes increased by 6.4%. The increase is in line with economic growth, which amounted to 2.7% in 2018.

Figures from the Dutch Payments Association show that damages caused by phishing increased from approximately EUR 1.0 million in 2017 to EUR 4.0 million in 2018. The damage caused phishing at Belgian banks increased from EUR 2.5 million in 2017 to EUR 8.0 million in 2018.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 0.50% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 26 March 2019

The Central Planning Bureau announced that the volume of world trade has increased by 2.3% in January 2019 compared to December 2018. In December 2018, world trade decreased by 2.1%. These figures are under the assumption that import- and export figures for the United States remained stable, as there are no statistics available due to the shutdown of the government at that time. Global manufacturing output remained the same in January compared to December.

Research Bureau GfK stated that expected consumer confidence in Germany has decreased for April 2019. The index is 10.4, compared to a revised figure of 10.7 for March 2019. Economists expected a value of 10.8.

Research agency Ifo announced that producer confidence in Germany has increased in March 2019 compared to February 2019. The confidence index reached a level of 99.6, compared to 98.4 in the previous month. Economists did not expect a change.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.48% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 25 March 2019

Market Information Monday 25 March 2019

According to research agency Markit, US manufacturing activity in March 2019 decreased to a level of 52.5 compared to 53.0 a month earlier. Economists expected a level of 53.5. In the services sector, activity was also lower, at a level of 54.3 in March 2019 versus 54.8 a month earlier.

Statistics Netherlands reported that the number of passenger at Dutch airports increased by 4.1% in 2018 compared to 2017. Especially the smaller airports of Rotterdam, Groningen and Maastricht received significantly more passengers in the last three months of 2018. Maastricht airport, for example, had 75% more passengers in 2018.

On the brexit front, the Sunday Times newspaper reported that ministers in the British cabinet want Prime Minister Theresa May to step down immediately. The ministers are said to be planning to confront May on Monday. They could threaten to resign collectively if the Prime Minister refuses to leave. The ministers would like to install an interim prime minister.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 0.50% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Eurozone
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) United States
• Producer Price Index (PPI) United States
• Interest rates Japan

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 22 March 2019

Market Information Friday 22 March 2019

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) stated that the volume of investments in tangible fixed assets in January was 4.9% higher than in the same month last year. Especially investments in residential real estate, offices and machinery increased significantly. Additionally, CBS mentioned that the conditions for investments in tangible fixed assets have improved with respect to the start of this year.

The European Commission (EC) stated that consumer confidence in the Eurozone has increased in March compared to February. The indicator, used by the EC to measure confidence in the economy by consumers, rose from minus 7.4 to minus 7.2 this month. Economist expected a level of minus 7.1.

The European Union is willing to delay the Brexit until 22 May, on the condition that the House of Commons votes to agree with the current withdrawal deal next week. If the MP’s do not approve the withdrawal deal next week, the EU will agree to a shorter delay until 12 April. This will also be the last chance to decide whether the British will participate in the European elections.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.58% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 21 March 2019

Market Information Thursday 21 March 2019

With more than 93% of the votes counted, the new political party Forum for Democracy (FvD) seems to have gathered most votes during the Dutch Provincial Council elections. Additionally, the Greens (GroenLinks) have also gathered considerably more votes compared to the previous Provincial Council elections. Because of these election results, which indirectly decide in the seat allocation among parties in the Dutch Senate, the current coalition will lose its majority in the Dutch Senate.

The Federal Reserve has announced its decision not to increase the interest rates any further this year. This decision was made during a two-day policy meeting. In addition, the Fed published lower growth expectations. In 2019 and 2020 a growth is expected of 2.1% and 1.9%, respectively, while these numbers used to be 2.3% and 2%. Furthermore, the Fed announced a plan to stop reducing the portfolio of bonds, acquired during the quantitative easing, by September.

The British Office for National Statistics reported that inflation in the United Kingdom in February has increased to 1.9% on a annual basis, compared to 1.8% in January. The increase is mainly caused by increased prices of groceries, tobacco and computer games. The British central bank has set the inflation goal for this year at 2%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.58% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 20 March 2019

Market Information Wednesday 20 March 2019

Eurostat reports that construction output in the Eurozone decreased with 1.4% in January, compared to the month before. In December an increase of 1.1% was reported. In the entire European Union, the construction output remained equal, after a decrease of 0.2% in December.

Additionally, Eurostat reports that labour costs per hour in the Eurozone increased with 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared to the same period in the year before. For the entire European Union an increase of 2.8% is reported. The labour costs increased most in Romania, Latvia and Portugal with 13.1%, 11.8% and 10.3% respectively. Malta is the only country that reported a decrease, this decrease amounted 0.5%.

According to the Dutch Chamber of Commerce, more Dutch entrepreneurs have prepared themselves properly for the Brexit. The percentage of companies that is not properly prepared decreased to 17% in the first quarter of 2019, compared to 29% in the quarter before. Most entrepreneurs responded by creating additional stocks.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 0.59% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 19 March 2019

Market Information Tuesday 19 March 2019

Preliminary figures from Eurostat show that the export of the eurozone countries to the rest of the world has increased by 2.5% in January 2019 compared to the previous year. In January, the sum of exports amounted EUR 183.4 billion. The imports of the eurozone countries increased on a year-on-year basis by 3.4% to EUR 181.8 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of EUR 15 billion.

Eurostat stated that the amount of job offers in the eurozone has increased in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter. The percentage of job offers was 2.3% of the total demand for labor, compared to 2.1% in the previous quarter.

The Speaker of the British House of Commons, John Bercow, stated that the previously rejected Brexit proposal of the British government cannot be brought up for a vote again. The proposal is too much in line with the previous proposal. Bercow also stated that if the government wants to bring the proposal up for a vote again, significant changes have to be made.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.57% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 18 March 2019

Market Information Monday 18 March 2019

The industrial production in the US in February has increased with 0.1 percent on a monthly basis. According to the figures from the Federal Reserve. Economics expected on average an increase of 0.4 percent. In January the production in the US industry decreased with 0.4 percent. This number has been revised from the previously published decline of 0.6 percent.

Deutsche Bank has commenced talks with Commerzbank concerning a merger between the two banks. This would be one of the largest bank mergers ever realized. The combined balance sheet total would be the third largest in the Eurozone.

Consumer confidence in the US has increased in March compared to the previous month, according to preliminary results from the University of Michigan. The index that contains the sentiment from American consumers has increased from 93.8 to 97.8 in January.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.59% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
• Balance Sheet Japan
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) United Kingdom
• Producer Price Index (PPI) United Kingdom
• Interest rate United Kingdom

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 15 March 2019

Market Information Friday 15 March 2019

The American department of commerce stated that the sale of new homes in the United States decreased by 6.9% with respect to a month earlier. This increase translates to an annual sale of 607,000 new homes. Economists forecasted new home sales to increase by 0.2 percent. In December the amount of new homes sold increased by 3.8%.

Statistics Netherlands reported that the collective revenue of retail trade increased by 1.6% in January compared to December. In the food sector the revenues increased by 1.5%. The total volume that was traded in the retail sector increased by 0.8%.

The US government stated that import prices increased by 0.6% compared to one month earlier. Economists expected an increase of 0.3%. In January, import prices increased by 0.1% after prices decreased by 0.5% in December. The export prices also increased in the United States. Export prices went up by 0.6% after a decrease of 0.5% one month earlier.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.59% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 14 March 2019

Market Information Thursday 14 March 2019

In a vote, the British House of Commons rejected the option to leave the European Union without a deal. The House of Commons voted by 312 to 308 in favour of an amendment that states that a no-deal Brexit cannot be the outcome in any situation. This amendment is different from the original motion, which stated that a no-deal Brexit remains the legal default if no other solution is found.

The US department of Labor reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) in February has increased with 0.1% compared to the month before. In January, the PPI decreased with 0.1%. On average, economists predicted an increase of 0.2% per month.

The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) report that as a result of calculations on the Dutch concept-Climateagreement, even though it is possible, it is unlikely that the climate goals will be reached. The PBL and the CPB state that with the current agreement, it is possible to obtain a reduction of greenhouse emission between 31 and 52 megatons in 2030, while the goal is a reduction of 49 megatons in 2030.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.58% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 13 March 2019

Market Information Wednesday 13 March 2019

Yesterday, the British House of Commons again rejected the Brexit deal of Prime Minister Theresa May. The agreement received 242 votes in favour and 391 against. The additional provisions to address concerns about the Irish border solution, agreed with the European Union the day before, could not reverse the tide. The United Kingdom (UK) has 17 days left to negotiate a deal until it leaves the EU.

According to figures from the UK Statistics Office, the UK economy increased by 0.5% in January 2019. Economists expected an average growth of 0.2%. This is the strongest monthly growth in more than two years. In December a contraction of 0.4% was reported.

A study by Deloitte, which annually examines mergers and acquisitions of healthcare organizations, shows that last year private equity parties were behind a third of acquisitions in the healthcare sector. This is an increase of 30% compared to 2017. In 2018, there were 96 transactions in the healthcare sector, representing approximately EUR 2.3 billion.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.57% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 12 March 2019

Market Information Tuesday 12 March 2019

According to Statistics Netherlands, the average daily production from the Dutch industry in January has been fractionally higher than the same month the year before. The increase of 0.1% follows a decrease of the production in December.

Momentarily Greece will not receive an extra deposit of almost €1 billion to its treasury. When Greece would have shown more progress towards the reforms and privatization they promised, they would have received this amount from European central banks. The amount consists of the profits European central banks made on the Greek government bonds.

After five following trading days with losses, the US stock markets closed with profits yesterday. The US stock markets have recovered from the disappointing previous week. The S&P500 increased with 1,5% and the Nasdaq Composite with 2%. These increases are however not equal to the decreases of respectively 2,1% and 2,5% from last week.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.57% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 11 March 2019

Market Information Monday 11 March 2019

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, employment in the United States increased at a lower rate in February 2019, with 20,000 jobs (excluding agriculture). This is the smallest increase in more than a year. Economists expected an increase of 180,000 new jobs.

Turkey is experiencing a recession for the first time in ten years. In the past three months, Turkey’s economy decreased by 2.4% on a quarterly basis. Compared to a year earlier, the economy contracted by 3%. The depreciation of the Turkish lira, coupled with the high debt that Turkish companies have with foreign lenders, did not benefit the Turkish economy.

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that in the fourth quarter of 2018, turnover in the transport sector increased by 5.9% compared to the same period last year. Turnover was particularly high in inland shipping, with an increase of 13.5%. In addition, 6400 new transport companies were established in 2018, an increase of 1400 transport companies compared to 2017.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.56% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Eurozone
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) United States
• Producer Price Index (PPI) United States
• Interest rates Japan

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 8 March 2019

Market Information Friday 8 March 2019

The ECB announced yesterday that it will not raise interest rates this year. In addition, the ECB announced several measures. From September onwards, a new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III) will be launched, with a maturity of two years. These operations are launched in order to preserve favourable bank lending conditions. The ECB has lowered its expectations for growth and inflation. The new expectations are 1.1% growth (previously 1.7%) and 1.2% inflation (previously 1.6%). The ECB indicates a slowdown in growth but not a recession. The ECB expects that in the second half of 2019 the growth will increase.

The Japanese economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter of 2018. Economists expected 1.7% growth but the gross domestic product increased by 1.9% on a year-on-year basis. The higher growth is partly caused by more and stronger business investments. However, economists are not very optimistic for 2019, because of the conflict between America and China and the more difficult market for technology companies.

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that the number of bankruptcies (347) in the wholesale trade sector in 2018, is the lowest number since this is being measured. In the fourth quarter of 2018 turnover of wholesale trade was 4.1% higher than in the last quarter of 2017. The growth is mainly caused by trade in oil and coal, the turnover in this branch increased with 15.4%. In addition, trade in building materials and electronic equipment had a positive effect on the growth in turnover in the wholesale trade sector.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 7 basis points to 0.58% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 7 March 2019

Market Information Thursday 7 March 2019

The US Department of Commerce reports a trade deficit of USD 621 billion in 2018. The deficit increased with 12.5% compared to the preceding year. The trade deficit can be attributed to increased domestic demand due to tax reductions and decreased exports due to the strong position of the dollar and foreign import tariffs.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its global economic growth expectations for 2019 to 3.3%. In November the expected growth for 2019 was 3.5% but because of reduced growth in China, continuous political uncertainties and weaker growth in Europe, the OECD re-adjusted its expectations. The global growth for 2020 is also lowered from 3.7% to 3.4%.

Statistics Netherlands reports that the prices of consumer goods and products in the Netherlands grew with 2.6% in February compared to the same period in the year before. In January, prices increased with 2.2%. The price increase in February is caused by price developments of car fuels, airplane tickets and clothing.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 0.65% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 6 March 2019

Market Information Wednesday 6 March 2019

Research institute ISM announced that the activity in the US services sector increased in February 2019, with a growth rate of 59.7 compared to 56.7 in January 2019. Economists expected a level of 57.4. A position above 50 indicates growth, and below that indicates contraction.

The American president Donald Trump threatens to terminate certain free trade agreements with India and Turkey. According to Trump the agreements with India are not reasonable, because India is still creating trade barriers for American exports. According to the president, Turkey’s economy is developed in a way that the support program is no longer necessary.

The European statistical office Eurostat reported that retail sales in the European Union increased by 1.1% in January. A month earlier there was still a 1.3% decrease. On an annual basis retail sales increased by 2.2%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 5 March 2019

Market Information Tuesday 5 March 2019

Yesterday, Eurostat announced that eurozone producer prices increased 0.4% in January 2019 compared to December 2018. Economists expected an increase of 0.3%. For the European Union, an increase of 0.3% was reported.

On Tuesday, China lowered its economic growth forecast for 2019. Economic growth is expected to be between 6% and 6.5%. Previously, the growth forecast was 6.5%. It is the first time Peking uses a range for its growth forecast. In addition, tax cuts amounting to € 263 billion were announced, along with investments worth several billions in infrastructure and smaller businesses.

Figures publishes by the United States Department of Commerce show that construction spending in the United States has increased by 0.6% in December 2018 compared to November 2018. Economists expected an increase of 0.2%. In November, construction spending rose by 0.8%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.69% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 4 March 2019

Market Information Monday 4 March 2019

The United States and China are close to an agreement that will lift most American trade restrictions on products from China. Agreement would have been reached on the export of US products to China and protection of intellectual property. Parties are still negotiating, on whether import tariffs should be removed immediately, or whether a transitional period will be introduced during which China would have to demonstrate that it complies with the agreements.

Credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded the credit rating of Greece from B3 to B1, with a stable outlook. According to Moody’s, a stronger economy, combined with tight creditor supervision, reduces the chances of reversing reforms.

Thursday, the ECB will hold its policy meeting. Markets expect that the ECB will not change interest rates. ECB President Mario Draghi will present the ECB’s expectations for economic growth and inflation in the Eurozone. On Friday, the jobs report from the US for February will be published. Furthermore, figures will be published on the European services sector, European retail sales and German factory orders.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.71% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Eurozone
• Producer Price Index (PPI) Eurozone
• Unemployment United States
• Interest rates Eurozone

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 1 March 2019

Market Information Friday 1 March 2019

The economic growth in the US has increased at a lower rate in the fourth quarter of 2018 than in the third quarter of 2018. However, economic growth is still above expectations, according to the US department of Commerce. On annual basis, the economy expanded by 2.6% while economists expected an increase of 2.2%. The growth in the third quarter of 2018 was 3.4% on an annual basis.

The Institute for Supply Management stated that the economic activity in and around the American city of Chicago experienced a significant increase in economic growth. The purchasing managers index that measures the economic activity in Chicago increased from 56.7 in January to 64.7 in February. Economists expected a growth to 57.5.

The German bureau of statistics estimated, based on preliminary numbers, that inflation in Germany has increased. According to these numbers inflation, on annual basis, increased from 1.4% in January to 1.6% in February. Economists expected an increase of 1.5%. German consumer prices also increased on a monthly basis. Consumer prices increased by 0.5% in February, while prices decreased in January by 0.8%. Economists expected an increase of 0.4% in February.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 0.70% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.