Market Information Thursday 28 February 2019

Market Information Thursday 28 February 2019

European Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis presented the annual country reports on Wednesday. In these reports the European Commission outlines how the individual EU countries are performing, economically and socially. The economies of Italy, Greece and Cyprus face weaknesses. The national debt of Italy is over 130% of the gross domestic product, while the European fiscal rules only allow a maximum of 60%. Only Greece has a higher debt (180%). Greece and Cyprus face a relatively high unemployment rate, low growth expectations, high government debt and a lot of bad credit.

Figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) show that the producer prices of the Dutch industry were 1.2% higher in January than in January 2018. The price increase is higher than in December 2018, when products were 0.6% more expensive than a year before. Compared with December, the selling prices in January rose by more than 1%. On the other hand, the price of petroleum fell compared to a year before, by almost 7%. In January 2019, a barrel of crude North Sea Brent oil cost almost 52 Euro.

The summit between the American President Donald Trump and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un was cut short on Thursday, without a deal. Trump wanted to reach agreement to abandon the North Korean nuclear arsenal. In exchange for abandoning the nuclear weapons, Kim demands that the US dismantle their nuclear defense system for the protection of American allies in the region. According to Trump the summit ended because Kim required the sanctions against North Korea to be lifted entirely.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 0.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 27 February 2019

Market Information Wednesday 27 February 2019

Prime Minister Theresa May submits a proposal to the House of Commons to vote in favor of postponement of Brexit. May wants to put this new deal to the vote by 12 March at the latest. If this proposal is rejected, the House of Commons may vote for a departure without a deal on the 13th of March. If there is no majority for this either, then a vote will be taken for postponement on the 14th of March.

Figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and Kadaster show that in January 2019 on average EUR 302,157 was paid for a house. This is the first time that the EUR 300,000 limit has been broken. In the past year, the monthly increase in the housing price index was around 9% on an annual basis. However, the number of homes sold declined since 2018. On average, 10% less homes were sold in 2018 than in 2017.

The European Parliament and Member States have agreed that banks and other financial service providers in the European Union will be granted a 2-year postponement for an alternative for the Euribor and Eonia base rates. The extra time given to banks and other financial services providers should ensure a smooth transition to new standards.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.65% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 26 February 2019

Market Information Tuesday 26 February 2019

Preliminary figures published by the United States Department of Commerce show that wholesale inventories have increased in December 2018 compared to November 2018. Wholesale inventories increased by 1.1% in December compared to the previous month. Economists expected an increase of 0.3%

Yesterday, the Chinese government has again put out a warning concerning the financial risks in the country, caused by highly indebted state enterprises and local governments. According to the vice-chairman of a commission about bank- and insurance sector, measures have to be taken to combat these financial risk factors. The warning followed up on comments from president Xi Jinping las Friday, who stated that financial security is of the utmost importance for national security.

The Dutch Central Planning Bureau stated that global trade volume has decreased by 1.7% in December 2018 compared to November 2018. In November, a decrease of 1.8% was recorded. Global manufacturing production fell by 0.1%, compared to a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.64% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 25 February 2019

Market Information Monday 25 February 2019

Yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she wants to postpone her Brexit deal with Brussels. The Prime Minister would want to postpone the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union on 29 March 2019 for two months. However, the Members of Parliament are less positive about the continuous postponement of the Brexit deal.

US President Donald Trump announced that he postponed import tariffs USD 200 billion for China due to positive conversations. In addition, he announced a summit with the Chinese president Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago, where the agreements will be recorded. According to Trump, the top with Xi will only continue if both countries continue to make progress.

This week, macroeconomic figures on European consumer confidence and German, French and Italian inflation will be published. In the United States, figures on house sales and prices, economic growth and various producer price indices will be published.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 0.63% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
– Gross Domestic Product (GDP) United States
– Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Eurozone
– Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) United States
– Unemployment Eurozone
– Nominal wages United States

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 22 February 2019

Market Information Friday 22 February 2019

According to preliminary numbers from Markit, the increase of activity in the US economy diminished in February with respect to a month earlier. Markit stated that the purchasing managers index (PMI) decreased from 54.9 in January to 53.7 in February. Economist predicted the PMI at 54.8 in this month. In the services sector the PMI increased from 54.2 in January to 56.2 in February. Economist expected a PMI of 54.3 in this sector in February.

Research association Conference Board stated that the prospect on the US economy has deteriorated again in February based on leading business cycle indicators. Leading business cycle indicators are a group of statistical time series that have proven useful in analyzing the business cycle as they tend to shift direction in advance of a business cycle. The business cycle barometer decreased by 0.1% while economists expected an increase of 0.1%.

The European Central Bank made more profit in 2018 than in 2017. The higher profit was mainly due to an increase in interest income. The higher interest income is a consequence of a significant increase in debt issued by the ECB to stimulate the economy last year. In 2018, the profit of the ECB was 1.6 billion euro, while profit in 2017 was 1.3 billion euro.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 0.66% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 21 February 2019

Market Information Thursday 21 February 2019

The European Commission stated yesterday that consumer confidence in the eurozone has increased in February 2019 compared to January 2019. The index measuring confidence achieved a level of -7.4 in February, compared to -7.9 in the previous month. Economists expected a value of -7.7.

Figures published by Statistics Netherlands show that the unemployment rate has stabilized in January 2019 compared to December 2018. In January the unemployment rate was 3.6%, with 329,000 people looking for a job, while 8.9 million people had paid work. In total, 4.1 million people did not have paid work for diverse reasons. 3.7 million people did not look for or were unavailable for paid work.

Definitive figures published by the German federal statistics agency show that German inflation has decreased in January 2019 to 1.4% on a year-on-year basis, compared to 1.7% in December 2018, in line with economists’ expectations. Based on the European harmonized method, German inflation remained stable at 1.7%, also in line with economists’ expectations.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.63% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 20 February 2019

Market Information Wednesday 20 February 2019

The German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) announced that producer prices in Germany increased unexpectedly by 0.4% in January 2019 in comparison to December 2018. In December 2018 a decrease of 0.4% was reported. Economists expected a decrease of 0.1% in January 2019.

According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the Dutch consumer confidence index dropped to -2 in February 2019 from 1 in the previous month. It marked the first negative reading since February 2015. With an index of minus 2 consumer confidence is still slightly above average over the past twenty years, with an index of minus 3.

Figures published by the Japanese government show that exports in Japan decreased significantly by 8.4% in January 2019 on an annual basis. Economists expected a decrease of 5.7%. It was the second month in a row that exports showed a decline. Such a large decrease was last seen in 2016.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.65% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 19 February 2019

Market Information Tuesday 19 February 2019

American President Donald Trump is being sued by sixteen American States, because of the declaration of the state of emergency for the construction of a border wall with Mexico. The countries hope to block the financing for the construction of the border wall. According to the states, there is no state of emergency in the border area, they claim that Trump misuses his presidential power by declaring the state of emergency.

According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the increase in house prices is boosting the household capital of the Dutch. The net average household capital rose to 28,300 Euro in 2017, which was over 6,000 Euro more than in 2016. If property is left out of consideration, the household capital is reduced to 14,100 Euro.

In December 2018, Statistics Netherlands has measured a decline in monthly sales for the industry sector, for the first time in two years. The total industry sales were 2.6% lower in December in comparison to a year before. Quarterly sales in the fourth quarter were 1.8% higher than the fourth quarter of 2017.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.66% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 18 February 2019

Market Information Monday 18 February 2019

In an interview, the president of the French central bank and director of the European Central Bank (ECB) François Villeroy de Galhau said that he believes that the weakening of economic growth in Europe is significant. The ECB may decide not to increase interest rates if it appears that growth in the Eurozone is delaying. According to François Villeroy de Galhau the biggest problem that the Eurozone faces is global political uncertainty.

The Hongkong economy is hit by the trade war between the United States and China. The former British colony is an important hub of money flows and trade in Asia. The economic growth in Hongkong decreased in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 1.5%.

In an interview in de Volkskrant, the Dutch Minister Cora van Nieuwenhuizen of Infrastructure and Water Management says that she fully supports the plan to allow Schiphol to grow after 2020. According to the Minister, Schiphol would otherwise lose competition with other airline hubs in Europe. Up to and including 2020, a maximum of 500,000 flights per year is applied to Schiphol, which has already been achieved. The Minister said she wants to find a balance between the requirements of the aviation sector and residents living nearby Schiphol.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.65% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Eurozone
• Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Eurozone

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 15 February 2019

Market Information Friday 15 February 2019

The American department of Labour published numbers regarding consumer prices. Consumer prices in the United States decreased by 0.1% with respect to last month. Economists expected consumer prices to increase by 0.1%. In December, prices also fell by 0.1% with respect to a month earlier.

The Chinese bureau of statistics reported that the growth of producer prices decreased last month with respect to a month earlier. Producer prices increased by 0.1% in January, while the increase in December was 0.9%. Economists expected a growth of 0.3%. This is the seventh consequential month of decline of producer prices.

The stock exchanges in New York suffered losses on Thursday. An unexpected decrease of retail sales in January was identified as potential culprit of the lower market sentiment. The Dow-Jones decreased by 0.4% to 25,439.39 points, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.3% to 2475.73 points.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.65% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 14 February 2019

Market Information Thursday 14 February 2019

Figures published by the United States government show that inflation in January 2019 has decreased. The inflation was 1.6% on a year-on-year basis, compared to 1.9% in December 2018. Economists expected a rate of 1.5%. Core inflation was 2.2%, unchanged from December 2018.

European statistics agency Eurostat announced Wednesday that the manufacturing output in the eurozone has decreased in December 2018 compared to the previous month. The decrease amounted to 0.9%, compared to 1.7% in November 2018. Economists expected a decrease of 0.4%. In the European Union, the manufacturing output fell by 0.5%, compared to a decrease of 1.2% in the previous month.

The Japanese Cabinet Office published figures showing that the Japanese economy grew in the fourth quarter of 2018. The economy grew by 1.4% on a year-on-year basis, in line with economists’ expectations. In the third quarter of 2018, the economy shrank by 2.6%, primarily due to natural disasters. Compared to the third quarter, the economy grew by 0.3%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.66% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 12 February 2019

Market Information Tuesday 12 February 2019

According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS) the number of companies declared bankrupt in January 2019 fell sharply compared to December 2018. A total of 283 companies went out of business in January 2019, compared with 330 companies in the last month of 2018. This was the first month with a decline in bankruptcies, after three months of increase.

The Dutch State is investigating the opportunity to no longer do business with companies that have settled with the public prosecutor because of a violation of the law. The Ministries of Economic Affairs and Finance are examining how such companies can be excluded in the future in government tenders and how running contracts can be terminated. Within a few weeks it will probably become clear how the rules for public procurement will be adjusted.

A new shutdown of the United States seems to be prevented. After the negotiations of Monday evening, the American Congress reached consensus on all points, according to Richard Shelby, chairman of the negotiations. The question remains whether American President Donald Trump will sign the agreement. If there is still no agreement next Friday, the government will face another shutdown.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 0.65% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 11 February 2019

Market Information Monday 11 February 2019

The municipality of Amsterdam, the Dutch capital reported that 153 foreign companies opened a new office in Amsterdam last year, 28 companies did this in response to the expected Brexit. Figures from the Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency (NFIA) also show that the number of companies that relocated to the Netherlands, due to the departure of the United Kingdom more than doubled last year. More than 40 companies have already confirmed the relocation to the Netherlands in 2018.

According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), last year, the total number of companies in the Netherlands was the highest in more than ten years. In 2018, the increase of new companies amounted to 191,300, in comparison to 106,600 business closures. Meaning that, on balance, 84,700 more companies have been founded. The vast majority of new companies, 94% of them, are sole proprietorship.

According to its director Christine Lagarde, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is ready to provide Pakistan with a loan to overcome on the balance of payments a crisis. Pakistan needs to close a financial gap of USD 12 billion and is now negotiating the terms of a thirteenth emergency loan from the IMF in forty years. In recent months, Pakistan already received emergency loans of USD 3 billion from both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 0.63% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Eurozone
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) United States
• Producer Price Index (PPI) United States

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 8 February 2019

Market Information Friday 8 February 2019

European exchanges experienced a setback on Thursday after a reduction of the growth expectation in the Eurozone. Economists expected an economic growth of 0.1% for Italy. However, for the first time since 2015 the economy did not grow in Italy. Growth expectations for all countries in the EU were adjusted downwards. The AEX index fell by 0.9% to 531.63 points and the MidKap fell by 1.4% to 728.84.

The Reserve Bank of Australia adjusted expectations of economic growth downwards. The Australian central bank stated that decreased consumption, global trade tensions and decreasing Chinese growth of the economy were the main reasons for the adjusted growth expectation. The expected economic growth in Australia of the fiscal year that ends in June is 2.5%. This number was adjusted downwards from 3.25%.

The average daily production of the Dutch industry fell by 4.2% with respect to the same month a year earlier. This is the first decrease in average daily production since September 2015 according to Statistics Netherlands. The production in December was 3.9% lower than in November, which brings the production to its lowest point since September 2017.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 0.66% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 7 February 2019

Market Information Thursday 7 February 2019

Figures published by the International Air Transport Association show that the global demand for air freight transportation has increased in 2018. Freight transport increased with 3.5% in 2018, compared to 9.7% in 2017. In 2019, demand is forecast to increase by 3.7%. However, trade tensions and protectionism by certain governments may be risk factors for the transportation industry.

The German federal statistics agency announced that the output of the German manufacturing industry has decreased in December 2018 compared to November 2018. A decline of 0.4% was measured, against a revised decline of 1.3% in the previous month. Economists expected a growth of 0.8%. On a year-on-year basis, a decrease of 3.9% has been measured.

Italian 30 years government bonds are very much in demand. Italy received EUR 41 billion in offers. The Italian government decided to offer EUR 8 billion in government bonds. Economists expected an offering of between EUR 6 and 7 billion. The planned 2019 budget and disagreement with the European Union concerning the budget had put pressure on yields. The reduction of these tension increases the demand for government bonds. Italy has announced to offer EUR 250 billion sovereign debt in 2019.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.23% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.69% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 6 February 2019

Market Information Wednesday 6 February 2019

According to the German Federal Statistical Office, manufacturing orders decreased by 1.6% in December 2018 compared to a month earlier. Economists expected manufacturing orders to increase by 0.3% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, German manufacturing orders decreased by 7%.

During the State of the Union speech, US President Donald Trump announced that he will meet with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un in Vietnam on February 27 and 28. The United States wants North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons. The previous meeting led to the pledge that Pyongyang will work towards the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

Yesterday, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that the number of passengers arriving or departing from Dutch airports increased to 79.6 million in 2018. That is 3.4 million more than in 2017. The number of passengers travelling through Schiphol, increased by 4%. For other national airports in the Netherlands, such as those in Maastricht and Eindhoven, the number of passengers increased by almost 11%. The growth of Schiphol is limited because the number of flight movements is restricted.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.70% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 5 February 2019

Market Information Tuesday 5 February 2019

Yesterday, the European ultimatum for Venezuela expired. The European Union requested President Nicolas Maduro to issue elections. Thereafter, several European countries, among which The Netherlands, have accepted opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim president. The United States and several South American neighboring countries of Venezuela recognized Guaido already as President. However, countries as Russia, China and Turkey keep supporting Maduro as President.

According to the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets banks and brokers are unclear about costs for investors. They do not fully meet the new European investment rules, Mifid II, that are applicable since the beginning of 2018. Mifid II should encourage transparency and protection of investors. The costs that investors charge are not transparent yet. Fund houses and other major investors are already paying less thanks to Mifid II. They pay less for transactions and investment research, according to research by consulting firm Greenwich Associates.

Branch organisation INretail announces that the tight housing market has negative effects on the revenue of furniture shops. Last year, retail stores had a revenue growth of 0.2%. The branch expects to achieve lower sales this year, especially in regions were the housing market is tight, such as around the four major cities. In addition, INretail thinks that a fall in consumer confidence and the competition of online stores will result in a decrease of revenue in 2019.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.71% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 4 February 2019

Market Information Monday 4 February 2019

In the Netherlands the legislative proposal to require tax advisors to report ‘cross-border structures’ was not received well by the Dutch Register of Tax Advisors (RB). The proposal regulates that tax consultants, accountants and financial institutions must report cross-border structures if these could be used to avoid taxes. The advisers have many questions about the proposal of Dutch State Secretary Snel (Finance) and worry about the increase in regulatory pressure. According to the RB, the duty to report will increase the burden of work of tax advisors, which ultimately passes the cost related to the work on to SMEs.

In an interview with the CBS program ‘Face the Nation’ that was broadcast on Sunday, US President Donald Trump announced that he will not rule out another shut down of the US government services, if he does not get the money to build the American-Mexican border wall. In addition, Trump announced in the interview that he will shortly release a date for a new summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

There is still uncertainty among the Brexit in England. According to several British media, Prime Minister Theresa May would consider launching general elections in the United Kingdom in June. This week Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and updates on manufacturing order in the United States and Germany are published. Additionally, the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision on Thursday.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 0.70% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
• Producer Price Index (PPI) Eurozone
• Interest rates United Kingdom

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 1 February 2019

Market Information Friday 1 February 2019

The activity in the Chinese economy continued its decrease in January according to publications from Market and Caixin. The purchasing manager index decreased to the lowest level in three years to 48.3, which is lower than the expected value of 49.6. In December 2018, this number was 49.7. A purchasing manager index higher than 50 indicates expansion.

According to preliminary estimations from Eurstat, the economy in the Eurozone grew by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018. This growth was also observed in the third quarter of that year. The growth met the average expectation of economists. The economy in the European Union grew by 0.3%, also at the same pace as in the third quarter. The economic growth on annual basis was 1.2% and 1.5% for the Eurozone and the European Union respectively.

Eurostat announced that unemployment in the Eurozone remained stable at 7.9% in December. This is the lowest level of unemployment since October 2008. According to Eurostat, 12.9 million people were unemployed. The unemployment of the whole European Union is 6.6%, which comes down to 16.3 million unemployed.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 0.66% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.