Market Information Tuesday 22 January 2019

Market Information Tuesday 22 January 2019

Statistics Netherlands reported that consumer confidence has decreased for the sixth month in a row in January 2019. The confidence index decreased by 8 points to 1, the largest decrease in seven years. However, the index is still above the 20-year average.

The German federal statistics agency announced that producer prices have decreased by 0.4% in December 2018 compared to November 2018. Economists expected a decrease of 0.1%. For November 2018, a decrease of 0.1% was measured. On a year-on-year basis, an increase of producer prices has been measured in December 2018, compared to 3.3% in November.

The International Monetary Fund has adjusted its 2019 economic growth forecast for Germany from 1.9% to 1.3%. The expected growth for 2020 remains the same at 1.6%. The most important drivers for the adjustment are the global trade tensions, new emission norms for cars and lower consumption figures in Germany.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.80% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 21 January 2019

Market Information Monday 21 January 2019

This week capital markets are mainly focused on the US government’s shutdown. The Democrats declined a proposal by US President Trump last weekend to find to a solution. On the macroeconomic front figures will be published on economic growth in Asia and industrial production in China. In Europe the monetary policy of the European Central Bank will be announced on Thursday.

Today, British Prime Minister Theresa May should propose an alternative to Parliament for her agreement with Brussels on the departure from the EU on 29 March. British parliamentarians from different parties try to prevent the country from leaving the union without agreements with the EU at the end of March. The ‘no-deal brexit’ would, in their eyes, be damaging to the British economy.

According to the National Statistics Bureau (NBS), the Chinese economy increased by 6.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018. On an annual basis, growth increased with 6.6%, which is the lowest level since 1990. Trade frictions between China and the United States have negative impact the Chinese economy. China’s central bank (PBOC), has repeatedly reduced the reserve requirements for banks in an effort to stimulate economic growth.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 0.81% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
– Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Eurozone
– Interest rates Eurozone
– Interest rates Japan

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 18 January 2019

Market Information Friday 18 January 2019

Yesterday, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) announced that the unemployment rate increased to 3.6% of the working population in December 2018, from 3.5% in November 2018. The number of working people increased by 13.000, up to 8.9 million.

Eurostat announced that inflation in the eurozone fell to 1.6% in December 2018, compared to 1.9% in November 2018. This is in line with average expectation of economists and an earlier estimate of Eurostat. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, was 1.0% in December 2018. For the European Union, inflation was 1.7% in December.

According to the European bureau of statistics Eurostat, building production in the Eurozone decreased by 0.1% in November 2018 compared to October 2018. In October 2018, building production decreased by 1.6%, compared to September 2018. Production decreased by 0.2% in the European Union in November 2018, and by 1.1% in October 2018 on a monthly basis.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.79% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 17 January 2019

Market Information Thursday 17 January 2019

The Chinese Central Bank has added a record amount of Rmb 570 billion (74 billion Euro) to the banking system, by providing short-term loans on collateral. The Central Bank states that the economy currently has a peak of tax payments and the liquidity of the banking system is quickly decreasing.

Yesterday’s vote of no confidence against the government of Theresa May was not accepted with 325 against 306 members. After the result May emphasized the importance of a solution that is negotiable with the EU and that can count on sufficient support of the parliament. Jeremy Corbyn states that the government should remove the possibility of a Brexit without a deal with the EU. May has until Monday to come up with a new plan.

The shutdown of the American government has been going on for 4 weeks now. The White House recognises the risk of a decreasing growth of the economy. Each two weeks that the civil servants do not get salary, the economic growth decreases with 0.13 percentage point.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.78% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 16 January 2019

Market Information Wednesday 16 January 2019

Yesterday evening just 202 members of the House of Commons backed the Brexit deal and 432 rejected the deal, this is a big defeat for May. After the results, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn proposed a no -confidence motion. The vote of no confidence will take place today.

Despite yesterday’s defeat of Prime Minister May, the British pound remained stable. Immediately after the vote, the pound fell against the US dollar by 1.2%. However, Wednesday morning the pound was flat against the US dollar at USD 1.286 and against the Euro at EUR 1.127.

The oil prices are steady after increases since beginning of this year. The price of a barrel Brent oil is this morning USD 60.68 and the price for a barrel WTI oil is USD 52.13. The oil market expects an aggressive supply cut from Saudi Arabia. In addition, the market expects that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will cut supply.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.78% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 15 January 2019

Market Information Tuesday 15 January 2019

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that exports increased by 0.6% in November 2018 compared to November 2017. The increase is higher than in October 2018, when an increase of 5.1% was measured. In November, higher exports were mainly driven by machines and equipment and petroleum products. According to Statistics Netherlands, the conditions for export in January are less favorable than they were in December.

In addition, Statistics Netherlands announced that the turnover of retail trade in the Netherlands in November 2018 was 4.1% higher than in November 2017. Sales volumes increased by 3.2%. Online sales increased by almost 20%.

Eurostat reported that the industrial production in the eurozone increased by 1.7% in November 2018 compared to October 2018. This is the sharpest decline since February 2016. Economists expected a decline of 1.5%. In the European Union, industrial production declined by 1.3%, compared to an increase of 0.1% in the previous month.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.79% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 14 January 2019

Market Information Monday 14 January 2019

China’s exports decreased unexpectedly by 4.4% in December 2019, imports also decreased by 7.6%. Economists had expected an increase of 2% in exports and an increase of 4.5% in imports. The figures indicate that the trade war with the United States negatively influences the Chinese economy, as does the weakening global economy.

The European Court of Auditors wrote in a letter to the European Parliament that the European Parliament must take action to ensure that the European Central Bank (ECB) makes all documents relating to banking supervision available. The European Court of Auditors believes it cannot do its work properly, because banking supervision entails significant risks to the public purse, say the auditors, but they will not be in a position to carry out a proper audit of these activities unless the ECB adjusts its stance regarding access rights.

This week capital markets are mainly focused on the vote in the British parliament on the brexit deal of Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday. In addition, the developments around the China-US trade war and the continued shutdown of the US government remain of interest on the capital market. On the macroeconomic front figures will be published on the European industrial production and inflation. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) will publish figures on store sales, trade and unemployment.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.80% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
– Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Eurozone
– Producer Price Index (PPI) United States

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 11 January 2019

Market Information Friday 11 January 2019

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) released minutes of the December policy meeting. As a result of the strong labor market and increased wages, the ECB sees the outlook of the European economy as solid. In the meeting, concerns of the ECB regarding increased risks in the market were stressed, which could potentially delay interest rate increases.

The United States Department of Labor announced that the amount of initial jobless claims has decreased. In the first week of 2019, 216,000 requests were filed, compared to 233,000 in the previous week. Economists expected 226,000 requests.

This morning, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that 3,144 business and institutions (excluding one-man businesses) declared bankruptcy in 2018. This is the lowest number of bankruptcies this century. In 2017, 3,291 companies filed for bankruptcy.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.81% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 10 January 2019

Market Information Thursday 10 January 2019

The Federal Reserve (FED) announced to take a more cautious stance on the need for interest rate increases. Although the decision in December to increase interest rates was taken unanimously, several participants indicated being in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged in the last published minutes. Because of moderate inflation and increased concerns about economic growth in the US.

Yesterday, President Donald Trump walked away from a negotiation regarding the shutdown. Several government services have been closed for more than 19 days because of disagreement on the new budget. This is one of the longest shutdowns in American history. Both the Republican president Trump and the Democrats, who have recently won a majority in the congress, stand firm to their point of view.

The research agency SEO calculated that if there is a no-deal deal, it will cost the Netherlands up to 2030, at least EUR 34 billion, which is EUR 2.8 billion per year. This amounts to EUR 164 per year for every resident of the Netherlands. The possibility that the United Kingdom and the EU do not reach agreement on the 30 March is likely. Last weekend, the British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she wants a vote on her brexit deal around the 15th of January 2019.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.82% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 9 January 2019

Market Information Wednesday 9 January 2019

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that the average daily production in the manufacturing industry in November has increased by 2,1% compared to November 2017. This increase is smaller than the increase in October. The largest production increase was in the metal products industry. This sector produced 7% more than a year earlier. On the other hand, the pharmaceutical and chemical sector produced about 7% less than a year earlier. In addition, CBS reports that producers in December are positive about the expected economic activity in the manufacturing industry.

The optimism about the negotiations between the United States and China has a positive effect on the stock market. Both the Japanese Nikkei and China’s Shanghai composite ended around 1% positive. In addition, the European stock markets opened positive. Lastly, the prices of oil increased. The price for barrel WTI rose above USD 50 overnight.

The Dutch State has benefited from the higher bond prices and lower interest rates. An old bond from 2013, has raised EUR 1.55 billion. This week several European countries issued government bonds. Belgium even raised EUR 28.5 billion with a ten-year loan.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.81% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 8 January 2019

Market Information Tuesday 8 January 2019

The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) has announced that the Dutch state has raised EUR 1.51 billion with the opening of a short-term loan, which matures on 27 June 2019. The yield on the loan is -0.6%.

Statistics Netherlands has announced that inflation in the Netherlands in December 2018 was 2.0%, the same level as in November 2018. Energy prices and airline ticket prices fell in December, while clothing prices rose. For the full year 2018, inflation was 1.7%.

Eurostat estimates show that retail sales in the eurozone increased in November 2018 compared to a month earlier. Stores reported a turnover increase of 0.6% on a monthly basis, while economists expected an increase of 0.2%. In October 2018, retail sales increased by a revised 0.6%. Retail sales in the European Union rose by 0.7% in November.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.80% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 7 January 2019

Market Information Monday 7 January 2019

Preliminary figures from Eurostat show that inflation in the Eurozone fell to 1.6% in December 2018, compared to 1.9% in November 2018. This is below the average expectation of economists and earlier estimates of the statistical office of 1.7%. The decline of inflation is mostly due to a decrease in energy prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, was 1.0% in December 2018, unchanged compared to the previous month.

In December 2018, the purchasing managers’ index for the United States services sector has decreased compared to November 2018. The index, which is published by research agency Markit, decreased to 54.4 and indicates a decline in growth of economic activity in the services sector. Economists expected a decrease of the index to 53.4 in December 2018. A level above 50 indicates growth of economic activity.

In November 2018, factory orders in Germany decreased by 1.0% on a monthly basis, as announced by the German federal bureau of statistics. Economists expected a decrease of 0.1%. On a yearly basis, factory orders decreased by 4.3%, where a decrease of 2.7% was expected.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 0.79% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 4 January 2019

Market Information Friday 4 January 2019

This morning, the Chinese government announced additional measures to stimulate the economy, as Taxes, fees, and capital requirements for banks will be reduced. The decision was taken after visiting the three biggest banks in China, said prime minister Li Keqiang. According to the prime minister, the stimulation should help small and medium enterprises. Last year, China already reduced capital requirements for banks several times to stimulate lending to enterprises.

The American payslip processor ADP has announced that employment in the private sector in the United States has grown substantially in December 2018. According to ADP, 271,000 jobs were created in December. Economists expected on average an increase of 180,000 jobs.

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for United States manufacturing decreased to 54.1 in December 2018, from 59.3 in November 2018. Economists expected a decrease of the index to 57. A PMI level higher than 50 is an indication of economic growth.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.74% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 3 January 2019

Market Information Thursday 3 January 2019

The stock exchanges in New York closed positive after a capricious first day of trading in 2019. The Dow-Jones index closed 0.1% higher on 23,346.24 points. Within an hour after opening, the index reached its lowest point of 22928.59 after which it reached its highest point of 23413.47. The S&P also increased 0.1% to 2510.03 points and the Nasdaq climbed to 6665.93 points, an increase of 0.5%. The positive outcome was fueled by increasing oil prices and a positive outlook on the trade war between the United States and China.

Yesterday, oil prices experienced a remarkable revival after a decline earlier that day. The price surge was seen after Saudi Arabia published a statement that it had decreased its oil exports. The price of a barrel of WTI increased by 3.3% to 46.90 USD and the price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil increased by 3.4 % to 55.63 USD. Saudi Arabia cut its exports of crude oil to 7.2 million barrels a day. Oil prices dropped earlier that day after numbers regarding the Chinese industry turned out to be below expectations.

Research bureau Markit states that the economic activity in the manufacturing sector of the United States has increased less in December 2018 than one month earlier in November. This is based on definitive numbers. The index decreased from a value of 55.3 in November to 53.8 in December. Economists expected a value of 53.9.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 0.75% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 2 January 2019

Market Information Wednesday 2 January 2019

Figures from market researchers Markit and Caixin show that the economic activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector has decreased in December 2018 compared to November 2018. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 49.7, down from 50 in the previous month. The corresponding index from the Chinese government was measured at 49.4. This is the first contraction in the sector since July 2016. The government index is primarily focused on government enterprises, whereas the market researchers are primarily concerned with smaller private enterprises.

In addition, Markit has published figures concerning the economic activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone. The Purchasing Managers Index remained at a level of 51.4 in December 2018, the same as in November 2018, as expected by economists.

According to the Dutch Association of Purchasing Managers, the Dutch manufacturing industry has grown in December 2018. The Purchasing Managers Index reached a value of 57.2, compared to 56.1 in November 2018

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.81% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.