Market Information Monday 31 December 2018

Market Information Monday 31 December 2018

Today, the stock exchange in Hong Kong closed the year 2018 higher. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong ended 1.3% higher on 31 December 2018 compared to a day earlier. In spite of this, the main index lost almost 14% of value in 2018.

After a free New Year’s Day 2019, the investor agenda will start relatively empty. By contrast, the macroeconomic agenda is already quite filled, with a series of purchasing manager indexes and inflation figures. At the moment it is unclear to what extent the shutdown of the American government, will play a role in the publications of economic figures.

The euro officially exist for 20 years in 2019. In January 1999 the euro was introduced. At that time, it was not possible to pay with euro’s yet, until the beginning of 2002. Research from Brussels shows that around three quarters of civilians in the euro countries support the euro on economical level.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.81% compared to previous business day.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
– Producer Price Index (PPI) Eurozone
– Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Eurozone

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 28 December 2018

Market Information Friday 28 December 2018

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that sales prices in the Dutch industry increased with 2.7% in November 2018 compared to November 2017. In November 2018, products of the petroleum industry increased to almost 9% compared to November 2017. The prices of cars, electrical, plastics, rubber and metal products and machinery contributed as well to the increase.

According to Statistics Netherlands, the producer confidence increased in December 2018. The confidence increased from 7.2 in November 2018 to 7.5 in December 2018. On average, producer confidence in 2018 was 7.9, which is above the average of the past twenty years, with an average of 0.9.

Market researcher Conference Board announced that consumer confidence in American in the economy decreased in December 2018. The indicator that reflects confidence reached 128.1 for December 2018, compared to a revised score of 136.4 in November 2018. Economists expected a score of 133.7 in December 2018.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.82% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 27 December 2018

Market Information Thursday 27 December 2018

European exchanges were closed on Tuesday and Wednesday due to Christmas. Wall Street did open on Wednesday. On Christmas eve, exchanges in Amsterdam, Paris, Brussels and London suffered losses. The AEX closed 1.3 percent lower on 478.34 points. The MidKap also fell with 1.5% to 630.92 points. Exchanges in London and Paris lost 1.5 percent, while Frankfurt and Milan remained closed the day before Christmas.

Due to the shutdown of the American government, the department of commerce waived the publication of macro-economic figures. This week, figures on consumer purchases, trade of goods, and economic growth in the US were expected. The White House and the Congress failed to reach an agreement regarding the national budget last Friday.

Oil prices experienced an upward trend on Wednesday, after the price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil fell below 50 dollars, the lowest observed price in 2018. The price of a barrel of American oil increased with 5.5 percent to 44.86 dollars. Brent Crude Oil experienced a growth of more than 4 percent to 52.55 dollars per barrel. Oil prices have been falling due to decreased optimism in the world economy. The OPEC considered additional measures to balance demand and supply in the market.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.84% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 24 December 2018

Market Information Monday 24 December 2018

Last Friday, the Congress and the White House did not reach an agreement on a new state budget. Therefore, civil servants are sent home, without receiving salary. Today, the secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, will meet with directors of the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other relevant leaders, to discuss how the normal course of events in the financial markets can be secured.

Statistics Netherlands calculated that the budget surplus in the Netherlands has increased to EUR 12 billion in the first three quarters of 2018. This is 2.1% of the gross domestic product. Wopke Hoekstra, Minister of Finance expected a surplus of EUR 5.8 billion (0.8% of GDP). Total government revenue was EUR 14 billion higher in the first three quarters of 2018, expenditures increased by EUR 7 billion over the same period.

According to Statistics Netherlands, the gross profit before tax of non-financial corporations in the third quarter of 2018 amounted to EUR 67.2 billion, EUR 4.7 billion more than in the same quarter of 2017 and the highest amount since the start of the measurements in 1999.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 0.84% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 21 December 2018

Market Information Friday 21 December 2018

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) has announced that consumer confidence in the Netherlands fell slightly in December 2018 compared to November 2018. Both the willingness to buy and the general opinion on the economic climate fell slightly. The index that measures consumer confidence decreased with 4 points to 19. This means that the indicator is well above the long-term average, which is -3.

Research Bureau Conference Board announced yesterday that the outlook for the US economy has improved again. The economic barometer increased with 0.2% in November 2018. Economists had predicted that the economic outlook would remain unchanged. In October 2018 the index decreased with 0.3%.

Yesterday the British Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales increased with 1.4% in November 2018 compared to October 2018. The rise in retail sales is mainly explained by higher expenditures on household goods and high sales volumes on Black Friday. Economists forecasted an increase of 0.3% in retail sales.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.82% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 20 December 2018

Market Information Thursday 20 December 2018

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced an interest rate increase in the United States. The interest rate will be increased from 2.25% to 2.50%. It is the fourth interest rate increase of this year. The Fed expects to increase interest another two times in 2019.

According to the Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the number of working people in November 2018 amounted to almost 8.9 million. For the first time the employment rate exceeded the previous peak at the start of the crisis in 2008. The unemployment rate also reached a record of 3.5% in November 2018. Just before the crisis, at the end of 2008, this was stated at 3.6%.

Yesterday, the European Commission announced that it will not seek charges against Italy in accordance to the budget deficit. Rome and Brussels have agreed on a package of fiscal measures with which Italy prevents an excessive deficit procedure. According to Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis, the planned expenditures of Italy has decreased by EUR 10.25 billion.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.83% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 19 December 2018

Market Information Wednesday 19 December 2018

Yesterday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reported that economic growth in the G20, the group of the world’s most important economies, decreased in third quarter of 2018. The G20 countries experienced average economic growth of 0.8% in the second quarter of 2018, compared to 1.0% in the first quarter of 2018.

According to anonymous sources, the Italian government has reached an agreement with the European Union to avoid sanctions following its budget proposal for 2019. In their latest proposal, the Italian government cut spending by EUR 4 billion compared to its previous proposal, reducing the target deficit from 2.4% to 2.0% of GDP. The agreement is expected to be presented today.

Figures from the US Department of Commerce show that the number of houses under construction in the United States increased by 3.2% in November 2018 compared to October 2018. Economists expected the number of houses under construction to stabilize during this period. The increase follows a decline of 1.6% in October 2018 compared to the previous month.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.85% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 18 December 2018

Market Information Tuesday 18 December 2018

Final figures from Eurostat show that inflation in the eurozone fell to 1.9% in November 2018, compared to 2.2% in October 2018. This is below the average expectation of economists and earlier estimates of the statistical office of 2.0%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, was 1.0% in November 2018, compared to 1.1% in October. For the European Union, inflation was 2.0% in October.

Based on preliminary figures, Eurostat announced that the export from the countries in the eurozone to the rest of the world has increased in October 2018 by 11% compared to October 2017. The import of the eurozone countries has increased by 15%. This trade surplus of the eurozone was EUR 14 billion.

The Dutch Central Bank expects the growth of the Dutch economy will decrease in the coming years. The growth rate will be 2.5% in 2018, followed by 1.7% in 2019 and 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 3.6% of the labor force in 2019. The inflation rate is forecast to be 1.6% in 2018, followed by 2.7% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.87% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 17 December 2018

Market Information Monday 17 December 2018

This week capital markets are mainly focused on the Federal Reserve. The Fed holds its policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with interest rates expected to be increased. On Thursday, the Bank of England will also review its interest rates. On a macroeconomic level, inflation rates for the Eurozone and the United Kingdom will be published.

The Italian news agency Ansa reported that the Italian government aims to further decrease its budget deficit to avoid sanctions from the European Union. The budget deficit would decrease to 2.04% of the gross domestic product. Previously, the government assumed a 2.4% budget deficit.

According to the Statistics Netherlands, the number of jobs in the financial sector continues to decrease in the Netherlands, while the number of economists and financial specialists in the sector is growing. The number of jobs in the financial sector decreased by 4% in 2017 to 219,000.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) United States
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Eurozone
Nominal wages United States
Interest rates United States
Interest rates United Kingdom
Interest rates Japan

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 0.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Friday 14 December 2018

Market Information Friday 14 December 2018

Definitive figures published by the German statistics agency Destatis show that German inflation has decreased in November 2018. The inflation rate was 2.3% in November on a year on year basis, compared to 2.5% in October. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.1%. Based on the European harmonised method, the inflation rate was 2.2% on a year on year basis and 0.1% compared to the previous month. Prices in France increased by 1.9% on a year on year basis, compared to 2.2% in the previous month.

The ECB will discontinue the quantitative easing program. The ECB had announced multiple times that it will end the program in December 2018. Furthermore, the bank confirmed it will keep interest rates at their current levels until at least after the summer of 2019. The refinance rate remains at 0% and the deposit rate at -0.4%.

Yesterday, the United States Department of Labor announced that the amount of first requests for unemployment benefits has decreased. In week 50, 206,000 requests were filed., compared to 233,000 in the previous week. Economists expected 226,000 requests.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.88% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Thursday 13 December 2018

Market Information Thursday 13 December 2018

This morning, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported that exports increased with 5.1% in October 2018 compared to October 2017. In October, higher exports were mainly driven by transport equipment, metal products, machines and equipment. According to Statistics Netherlands, the conditions for export in December are more favorable than they were in October.

Figures from the US government show that inflation in the United States in November 2018 fell to 2.2% on an annual basis. Inflation in October 2018 was a revised 2.5%. The decrease was mainly caused by lower energy prices. Core inflation rose slightly to 2.1% on an annual basis in November, compared to 2.0% in October.

Eurostat reported that the industrial production in the eurozone increased by 0.2% in October 2018 compared to the previous month. This was in line with the expectations of economists. In September 2018, production fell by a revised 0.6%. Earlier, Eurostat reported a decrease in production of 0.3% for September. The Industrial production figure was the same for the European Union.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.24% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 0.89% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Wednesday 12 December 2018

Market Information Wednesday 12 December 2018

According to Statistics Netherlands, the number of bankruptcies increased by to 263 in November 2018. Compared with October 2018, the number of bankruptcies increased by 13 companies. In September, the lowest level in bankruptcies since 2000 was recorded.

Figures published by the US government show that producer prices in the United States increased by 0.1% in November 2018 compared to October 2018. Economists expected prices to stabilize during this period. In October, prices charged by US manufacturers increased by 0.6% compared to the previous month.

The British Office for National Statistics has announced that unemployment in the Great-Britain remained stable from August 2018 until October 2018. The unemployment rate was 4.1% during this period, Besides, during this period wages excluding bonuses increased by 3.3% on a yearly basis.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.25% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Tuesday 11 December 2018

Market Information Tuesday 11 December 2018

According to the British bureau of statistics, production of the British industry decreased by 0.6% in October 2018 compared to September 2018. Economists expected an increase of 0.1%. The decrease is mainly due to a decline in production in the manufacturing sector and the construction sector.

According to the German Federal Statistical Office Destatis, German exports increased in October 2018. Exports increased by 0.7% compared to September 2018. Economists expected an increase of 0.4%. Imports decreased by 1.3% during the same period, following a decline of 0.4% in September 2018.

Figures published yesterday by Statistics Netherlands show an increase in the average daily industrial output in the Netherlands. In October 2018 the average daily output of the Dutch industrial sector was 3.4% higher than in October 2017. In October 2018, the output of the transportation industry increased the most, with close to 10% compared to October 2017. The average daily industrial output increase by 0.4% in October 2018 on a monthly basis, whereas in September 2018 industrial output decreased with 0,2% on a monthly basis.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.25% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 0.86% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market Information Monday 10 December 2018

Market Information Monday 10 December 2018

According to figures published by the United States Labour Department, job growth has decreased in November 2018 compared to October 2018. Excluding agriculture, an increase of 155,000 jobs was reported. Economists expected an increase of 198,000. The job growth measured for October 2018 has been revised downwards to 237,000 from an earlier figure of 250,000. The unemployment rate remained stable at 3.8%, the lowest level in 48 years.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has come to an agreement concerning a reduction in oil production. Oil production will be decreased by 1.2 million barrels per day. This reduction is larger than the expected reduction of one million barrels. In addition, Iran was excluded from the meetings, since Iranian oil production has already been diminished by sanctions from the United States.

Eurostat announced Friday that based on definitive figures, the European economy has grown by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the second quarter. In the second quarter, the economy grew by 0.4%. On a year on year basis, a growth rate of 1.8% was measured for the European Union and 1.6% for the eurozone.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.25% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.85% compared to previous business day.

Market Information Friday 7 December 2018

Market Information Friday 7 December 2018

Yesterday, the ministry of Trade of the United States reported that factory orders increased in October 2018 compared to September 2018. In October 2018, factory orders declined by 2.1%, whereas in September 2018 factory orders increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis. Economists expected a growth rate of 2.0%.

In November 2018, the purchasing managers’ index for the United States services sector has decreased compared to October 2018. The index, which is published by research agency ISM, increased to 60.7 and indicates a surge in growth of economic activity in the services sector. Economists expected a decrease of the index to 59. A level above 50 indicates growth of economic activity.

In calendar week 49, the number of first requests for unemployment benefits in the United States has decreased to 231,000, as announced by the US ministry of Labor. In week 48, 235,000 new requests were registered. Economists expected a number of requests of 225,000 in week 49.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.25% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 0.85% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

Market information Thursday 6 December 2018

Market information Thursday 6 December 2018

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) announced that inflation in the Netherlands decreased to 2.0% in November 2018. In October 2018 inflation was 2.1%. The lower inflation can partly be explained by the decrease in oil prices in November. Food prices rose last month. According to the European measurement method, inflation in November was 1.8%. This means inflation in the Netherlands is below the European average of 2.0%.

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump called on the OPEC countries not to lower their oil production, as it will likely drive up oil prices. OPEC is holding a meeting today in Vienna where it will discuss the level of oil production. In November, oil prices decreased by more than 20%. Oil prices rose slightly earlier this month after, among other things, an announcement that Russia will limit its production.

Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) indicated in a report on the global credit market that the global conditions for securing loans are likely to become less favourable. According to S&P, the global trading tensions, rising interest rates and the weakening global economy are the most important factors in this development. In addition, rising debt positions of non-financial businesses may become a source of instability.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.25% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 0.86% compared to previous business day.

Market information Wednesday 5 December 2018

Market information Wednesday 5 December 2018

On Monday, the yield of U.S. two- and three year bonds increased just above the yield of a five years bond. This is the first time since 2007, that the U.S. yield curve shows an inversion. On financial markets, this is seen as an indicator of a possible recession, since all economic recessions since the 1960s have followed within two years of an inversion of the yield curve.

Due to a flattening U.S. yield curve and concerns about the global economy, the Asian and U.S. stocks declined. In addition, the European stocks opened with a loss today. Due to the funeral of former president George H.W. Bush, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) will be closed today.

The American Petroleum Institute published that oil inventories increased by 5.4 million barrels last week. Consequently, the price of Brent decreased to USD 61.14 per barrel, this is a 1.5% decrease. In addition, the price of a barrel WTI decreased to USD 52.44, this is also a 1.5% decrease.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.25% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 0.84% compared to previous business day.

Market Information Tuesday 4 December 2018

Market Information Tuesday 4 December 2018

In November 2018, the purchasing managers index (PMI) for the United States manufacturing increased compared to October 2018. The PMI, which is published by research agency ISM, increased to 59.3, against 57.7 in October. Economists expected a decrease of the index to 57.

According to the United States Department of Commerce, construction spending in the United States has decreased in October 2018 compared to September 2018. In October, US construction spending decreased by 0.1%. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.4%.

Market researcher Markit published final figures that show that economic activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone decreased in November 2018 compared to last month. The purchasing managers’ index, which reflects the activity in the manufacturing sector, was 51.8 in November compared to 52 in October. Analysts expected an index of 51.5.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at -0.25% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.88% compared to previous business day.

Market Information Monday 3 December 2018

Market Information Monday 3 December 2018

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have agreed at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires not to introduce new trade barriers over the next 90 days. In this period, the United States and China should come to a new trade agreement. A spokesperson for the White House confirmed that in the Chinese media, the US is temporarily refraining from a tariff increase planned for January 1st, 2019. Trump wanted to increase import duties on a total of USD 200 billion in Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. According to the spokesman, China agreed in exchange to buy a ‘very substantial amount of American products’, including agricultural and industrial products.

New estimates by the Italian statistical office Istat show that the Italian economy contracted in the third quarter of 2018. Istat reported in an earlier estimate that economic growth had amounted to 0.0% for Q3. New figures show that the Italian GDP has decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. On an annual basis the GDP grew with 0.7%. The decrease was caused by, among other things, lower domestic investments, which fell by 1.1% on a quarterly basis. Domestic demand for goods and services also declined. Due to the economic contraction, the Italian government will come under further pressure from the European Union to reduce the budget deficit for 2019.

European statistics agency Eurostat stated that the unemployment rate in the eurozone in October 2018 was 8.1%, the lowest level since November 2008. Economists predicted an unemployment rate of 8.0%. For the entire European Union, the unemployment rate in the October 2018 was 6.7%. Eurostat also published a preliminary estimate for inflation in November 2018 at 2.0%, compared to 2.2% in October 2018.

The following macro-economic figures will be published in the coming week:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Eurozone
Producer Price Index (PPI) Eurozone
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Eurozone
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) United States
Unemployment United States

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to -0.25% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 0.88% compared to previous business day.