Scenario Thinking and Complexity
In close cooperation with Zanders, GloComNet presents the current issues around the topic complexity in a series of six live webcasts.
The topic of the third webcast broadcasted on Monday 18 December 2017 was: Scenario Thinking and Complexity.
Conny Dorrestijn moderates the session. Guests were Yvonne Sijm from Zanders and Lex Hoogduin and Rik Berbé from GloComNet. There is an increasing interest for working with scenarios. More and more organizations are exploring possible futures. Even city ‘planners’ are involving stakeholders to co-shape scenarios for neighborhoods, districts and cities. People start to understand such scenarios help to change mental models.
Scenarios do NOT help to predict the future, they help to train our minds. Understanding that we will be surprised, positive or negative and support in fine-tuning courses of action. There are at least three ways to shape scenarios.
- Scenarios are essential to decide and carry out a course of action
- Scenarios are needed to detect surprises and assess the position within the environment
- Scenarios are useful to remain viable after negative surprises (stresstest, reverse stress test) Co-shaping these scenarios is a mix of using ratio, intuition and creativity. It is important to involve a variety and diversity of people involved in the process. Such a process should be comprehensive, participatory, qualitative and imaginative.