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The case for a forward-looking approach in savings modeling

A key challenge for risk modelers is to assess whether the available historical data is representative for the (near) future. This determines to a large extent whether a more backward-looking or a forward-looking approach is needed.

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How COVID-19 and low interest rates force banks to change their Non-Maturing Deposits modeling

Managing interest rate and liquidity risk on savings and current accounts is a hot topic for banks in 2021. Risk, ALM, and treasury managers have to navigate changing regulatory requirements, changing withdrawal behavior and deposit pricing strategies due to COVID-19, and decreasing market rates.

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“It all depends on expert opinion, data, and common sense”

Two ING experts share their views on deposit modelling

The low interest rate environment has faced banks with structural changes in customer behavior and converging products such as savings and current accounts. ING, one of Europe’s largest players in the savings market and a long-term client of Zanders, has positioned itself as one of the frontrunners in this environment. We sat down with Tom Tschirner (head of market risk at ING Germany) and Maarten Hummel (financial risk officer at ING Group) to gather their view on modeling and balance sheet management after these structural shifts.

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Incubating innovation

Thanks to exponential technological developments, the world is becoming increasingly connected and accessible, in the broadest sense of the word. This is why running nearly any type of business has become more complex and requires a deeper expertise than ever before. Irrespective of its core business, companies need more expertise in the areas of finance, legal, tax, marketing, IT, as well as treasury and risk. This is all the more reason for Zanders to continuously develop new innovative services and solutions with which we can lend companies a helping hand.

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Replicating investment portfolios

Many banks use a framework of replicating investment portfolios to measure and manage the interest rate risk of variable savings deposits. There are two commonly used methodologies, known as the marginal investment strategy and the portfolio investment strategy. While these have the same objective, the effects for margin and interest maturity may vary. We review these strategies on the basis of a quantitative and a qualitative analysis.

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