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Friday, January 20, 2012

A new version of the EU Treaty states that only those countries that have ratified the new European budget pact, are eligible for financial support. The granting of financial aid under the new European emergency fund for European countries in difficulties (ESM) will start March 1, 2013. On the 30th of January, EU leaders will discuss regulations of the permanent European emergency fund for European countries in difficulties (ESM).

Despite France and Spain’s S&P’s downgrading, long-term government bonds for the 2 countries were highly demanded. France, which lost its AAA status last week, issued 8 billion Euros worth of debt on auction and Spain, which lost its AA- status, successfully issued 6.6 billion Euros. The interest for a 10 year bond has decreased for both countries since mid 2011.

The Dow Jones index rose 0.40% to 12623,98 points. In Amsterdam the AEX index also rose with 1.60% to 320,48.

The 6M Euribor decreased by 1 basis point to 1.48%. The 10Y Swap increased by 6 basis point to 2.33%.

In the attachment below, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented. For more history of these rates or other rates feel free to ask: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

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Thursday, January 19, 2012

The International Monetary Fund has asked its member countries for an extra USD 500 billion to combat the world’s spreading fiscal emergencies. The IMF director, Christine Lagarde, estimates the crisis could generate demand for bail-out loans of USD 1 trillion over the next two years. The IMF currently has USD 387 billion in available resources. Sources told the press agency Reuters the USD 200 billion promised by the European countries on the European summit in December is included in the mentioned USD 500 billion.

The Industrial production in de United States increased 0.4 percent in December 2011 compared to November 2011 and 2.9% compared to December 2010 according to the Federal Reserve. Economists had expected an increase of 0.5% compared to November 2011.

On Wall Street the S&P 500 increased by 1.11% to 1,308.04 points. The Dow Jones index increased by 0.78% to 12,578.95 points. In Amsterdam the AEX index decreased by 0.04% to 315.52 points.

The 6M Euribor remained unchanged at 1.49%. The 10Y Swap decreased by 2 basis points to 2.27%.

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Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Yesterday the European bailout fund, EFSF, successfully issued EUR 1,5 billion zero-coupon six-month bills despite the downgrade by Standard & Poor’s to AA+ on Monday. The issue price was 99.8655, the yield at issue was 0.2678%. This is similar to yields of the same maturity of French debt trading in the secondary markets. The bid to cover ratio was more than 3.

The World Bank predicted significantly lower economic growth in 2012 and 2013 than it expected in June 2011. The global economy is likely to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2012 and 3.1 per cent in 2013 compared with forecasts of 3.6 per cent for both years forecast just six months ago. In 2012 the economy of the eurozone is likely to decrease by 0.3%, compared with an earlier forecast of a growth of 1.8%. Economic growth forecasts for the United States decreased from 2.9% to 2.2%.

On Wall Street the S&P 500 increased by 0.36% to 1,293.67 points. The Dow Jones index increased by 0.48% to 12,482.07 points. In Amsterdam the AEX index increased by 0.77% to 315.64.

The 6M Euribor decreased by 1 basis point to 1.49%. The 10Y Swap increased by 3 basis points to 2.29%.

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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Rating agency Standard & Poor's has lowered the creditworthiness of the European bailout fund EFSF from AAA to AA +. The rating of the EFSF was cut following the downgrade of 9 European countries last Friday. Currently, only 4 of the 17 countries which guarantee the EFSF have a credit rating of AAA.

In the last quarter of 2011, the Chinese economy has grown by 8.9% compared to the last quarter of 2010. The growth figure of the Chinese economy exceeded the forecasted growth rate of 8.7%.

Today the European Statistical Office Eurostat will publish a first estimate for the Euro zone inflation rate in December 2011. Analysts expect an inflation of 2.8% year on year. In November 2011 the inflation in the Euro zone was still 3.0% year on year. The European Central Bank aims to keep inflation below, but close to 2% on a yearly basis.

The 6M Euribor decreased by 1 basis point to 1.50%. The 10Y Swap increased by 2 basis point to 2.26%.

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Monday, January 16, 2012

Last Friday, Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's reduced the credit status of 9 Euro countries. France and Austria both lost their AAA status. The Netherlands keeps its AAA status, but is given a negative outlook. There is a chance of one out of three that the Netherlands will also lose its AAA-status within two years.

The downgrade of the Euro countries puts the credit status of the EFSF-fund under pressure, since its credit status is based on the status of the 17 Euro countries. With only four of the 17 Euro countries with an AAA-status, economists expect that the creditworthiness of the EFSF fund will be reviewed this week.

Today, inspectors of the IMF, ECB and EC will go to Greece to monitor the Greek progress. According to sources close to the trojka, the Greek financial position deteriorated in the past three months. Even if banks take a loss of 50% on Greek bonds, the state debt would be still EUR 20 billion higher than expected.

In addition to the European debt crisis, investors will take also a close look to the fourth quarter results of companies. Heavyweights like Bank of America, General Electric, Intel, Goldman Sachs and Microsoft are among the companies that will publish their results this week. Generally it is expected that most of the results will turn out good, despite the macro-economic problems worldwide.

The 6M Euribor decreased by 2 basis points to 1.51%. The 10Y Swap decreased by 7 basis points to 2.24%

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