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Monday, May 07, 2012

France has elected the socialist Francois Hollande as the new president of France with 51.7% of the votes. By electing Hollande, France has moved towards left-wing politics. Among other things, Hollande has promised to increase taxes for the rich and to create jobs and maintain social benefits through the money raised by the imposed taxes. Hollande also promised to lower the retirement age back to 60 years. The leftist politics in France may also have major implications for the direction of the European Union. Hollande has already announced that he wants to adjust the budget treaty from the EU to realize more economic growth for France. To achieve this, Hollande will have to cooperate with German Chancellor, Angela Merkel.

In Greece, the political landscape also changed this weekend. As a result of a significant loss of support for the established parties, less support remains for the recovery plan of the EU and the International Monetary Fund for Greece. The big winners of the elections are the radical left party Syriza, Independent Greeks and the Golden Dawn.

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. trade deficit rose in March rose to USD 50 billion, a decrease of USD 4 billion compared to February. Thursday, the government will present the official figures. The expected trade deficit is the result of both higher imports and lower exports. The imports rose mainly due to the increase in oil prices whereas exports fell because American companies struggle to sell their products overseas as a result of the global economic crisis.

The 6M Euribor remained unchanged at 0.99%. The 10Y Swap decreased by 3 basis points to 2.06%.

In the attachment below, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented. For more history of these rates or other rates feel free to ask: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

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Friday, May 04, 2012

As expected, the European Central Bank main refinancing rate remains at 1%. The president of the ECB pleaded for the need for fiscal consolidation, bank recapitalisation and a “growth strategy” between countries within the euro zone to improve the economic conditions within Europe.

In March 2012, inflation fell by 0.1% compared to last month for the countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This is due to the declining increases in energy and food prices. In the euro zone, the annual inflation rate remained stable in March at 2.7%. In the United States the annual inflation decreased by 0.2% to 2.7%.

Disappointing European and American macro figures is dampened the spirits on the stock exchanges. The AEX in Amsterdam dropped by 0.1% to 306.44. On Wall Street the Dow Jones declined by 0.5% to 13,206,59.

The 6M Euribor remained unchanged at 0.99%. The 10Y Swap increased by 1 basis point to 2.09%.

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Thursday, May 03, 2012

Yesterday the German Office of the statistic announced the unemployment figures of April. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Germany rose to 6.8%. The increase in the number of unemployed in Germany was unexpected since economists expected a decline in seasonally-adjusted unemployment. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in the Euro zone rose from 10.8% to 10.9% in March.

Yesterday ADP announced their jobs report, which shows disappointing figures. The number of jobs in the private sector in the United States increased by 119,000, while economists expected a rise of 175,000. The ADP jobs report are preliminary figures on the official jobs report from the U.S. government, which is presented Friday afternoon.

The ADP jobs report is not the official job report from the U.S. government, yet the figures influenced the mood on the stock exchanges. The AEX index closed 0.5% lower, in Frankfurt and London the stock exchanges decreased by 0.8% and 0.9%. The Dow Jones index ended 0.08% lower.

The 6M Euribor decreased by 1 basis point to 0.99%. The 10Y Swap decreased by 8 basis points to 2.13%.

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Wednesday, May 02, 2012

Economic activity in the American manufacturing sector expanded in April 2012 for the 33rd consecutive month, the PMI-index of the Institute of Supply Managers (ISM) registered at 54.8. The PMI-index of March was 53.4; analysts had expected a decline to 53. A figure above 50 indicates growth in the sector. New Orders, Production and Employment Indexes all increased, indicating growth at a faster rate than in March.

Yesterday the central bank of Australia (Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA) cut its main interest rate, the cash rate, by 50 basis points to 3.75%. Economic conditions in Australia are ‘somewhat’ weaker than expected, the inflation has moderated. Analysts had expected a decline of 25 basis points.

The rise of the PMI index in the United States contributed to the rise of the Dow Jones and S&P 500 in New York yesterday. The Dow Jones gained 0.50% to 13,279.32, the highest mark since the end of 2007. The S&P 500 increased by 0.57% to 1,405.82 points.

The 6M Euribor remained unchanged at 1.00%. The 10Y Swap increased by 3 basis points to 2.21%.

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Tuesday, May 01, 2012

In the United States, Consumer Spending grew by 0.3% in March 2012. Economists were initially expecting a growth of 0.4% compared to with February 2012. This could suggest that some are concerned about the economy. Moreover, Americans experienced an increase in income of 0.4%, where an increase of 0.3% was expected.

Last Monday, Eurostat announced that April’s inflation in the Euro Zone was 2.6% (year on year) whereas in March 2012 it was 2.7% (year on year).

The result of a survey of NEVI (Nederlandse Vereniging van Inkoopmanagers) suggested that the Dutch industry is still not performing well. The NEVI index declined from 49.6 to 49 where an index level below 50 indicates a contraction of the industrial activity.

The 6M Euribor decreased by 1 basis point to 1.00%. The 10Y Swap decreased by 5 basis points to 2.18%.

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